Big XII Conference Expansion 4.

Frank the Tank has a post specifically discussing Big XII conference realignment here. My thoughts are as follows.


I believe it is easier to prioritize values than to categorize values with a point based system. Lets then look at what will be valued.

1. Athletic power. When it comes down to it the number one reason a program would be considered is athletic value, which has two related components: competitiveness and commercial value. Regarding competitiveness the questions are: What have you done? (50 years analyzed by mcubed which really only quantify conventional impression), What have you done lately? (7 years by F+), and What are you doing now? (current BCS performance). Here only Boise State and BYU exceeds that of the Big XII average as determined by mcubed and F+ scores. Cincinnati, UCF and NIU could be considered if they win a BCS bowl game this season. Note the BCS win doesn't give get them the invite. The BCS win puts them on the radar for consideration.

2. Fandom. Fandom matters because it speaks to commercial value of the program. More fans means more attendance, more alumni contact and donation, more purchases of sport paraphernalia, and thus ultimately also more brand awareness. This is a measure of the program's commercial value. Here only BYU compares to the Big XII with game attendance and tv viewers (by Nate Silver's estimates in the NYT a year ago).

3. Demographic. Demographic here is about general population  size, population growth, and recruiting grounds. There are several programs here with the top two being UCF and USF for being in Florida. BYU gets listed here as Utah is a growing state. Cincinnati is a plus for Ohio (large state) and a minus (shrinking state).

4. Academic. Here the only real criteria will be AAU membership. Remember that the Big XII lost 3(4) AAU schools with Colorado, Missouri, aTm, (and Nebraska). Only two AAU schools would be Rice and Tulane, both programs doing pretty well this year with 6 wins thus.

5. Regionality. Here only proximity to ISU and WVU matters as the rest of the conference is already bunched up. For considerations might be NIU, Cincinnati, possibly ECU.


So in the end I agree with BYU as the top schools eligible placing with athletic power, fandom, and demographic. Then comes a huge gap for program #12 with choices from UCF, Cincinnati, possibly NIU or Boise State. The program able to win a BCS game this year will get the edge. Otherwise, i think it will be UCF before Cincinnati as Florida is a better state for the conference whereas Cincinnati is predominantly better for WVU.

Once back at 12, Big XII divisions should be zippered to allow "equivalent" access, exposure and travel. Each division should be anchored by OU and UT. There should be one to two annual cross division games to maintain rivalries. Each team will then play 5 division games, 2 annual cross division games, and 2 rotating cross division games. Listed are first annual cross division games.

WEST : EAST

• KSU : KU (2nd cross division game versus ISU to allow regional play for ISU)
• OU: OSU
• TTU: UT (2nd cross division game versus OU to maintain the Red River game)
• TCU: Baylor (2nd cross division game versus BYU so all the religious schools play each other)
• ISU : UCF
• BYU : WVU

Should the Big XII go to Big XIV (the Big XII already owns the rights to "Big XIV"), then it should be Rice and Tulane. Firstly why 14? The only reason would be to generate a dramatic increase in conference athletic volume and inventory for sales rather than just an incremental increase to 12 from 10. Rice and Tulane because they are both AAU programs and academics do matter to University Presidents. As #11 and #12 were taken based on competitiveness, there won't be a need to go to 14 for strength of schedule, but it will generate an opportunity to improve on academics. Never the less, a Big XIV is very unlikely.

• KSU : KU (2nd cross division game versus ISU to allow regional play for ISU)
• OU: OSU (2nd cross division game versus TCU?)
• TTU: UT (2nd cross division game versus OU to maintain the Red River game)
• TCU: Baylor (2nd cross division game versus BYU so all the religious schools play each other)
• ISU : UCF (2nd cross division game versus Rice)
• BYU : WVU (2nd cross division game versus TTU?)
• Rice : Tulane (2nd cross division game versus KSU?)

Each team would then play 6 division games, 2 annual cross division games and one rotating cross division games to keep conference games at 9 total.


The above discusses expansion candidates, not whether the Big XII should expand. Current TV contracts pay each Big XII schools $20M. No one knows for sure whether there is a contract clause that will increase payout for more games available with an expanded conference and a conference championship game. I suspect if there is one there has to be a reason why it has not been taken. It could be from the networks saying no teams available meets network's criteria for an increased payout of $40 millions to the conference. Thing is, if there is any program worth $20M the program would be getting it already, and so no need to join a power conference. And if the network already has that program in its stable for less, then why pay more for it?
Thus the only reason to expand would be if the conference loses out on post season revenue after the 2014 season when the new 2+1 "playoff" goes into affect. We will know more before June 1 2014. 

Big 12 Expansion Prediction

On January 28th and the 29th the Big XII will meet and on the agenda is expansion. This weekend the latest news is a potential alliance of games among the Big XII and the ACC, along with two other conferences (Pac 12? and?). Among the benefit of an alliance is interconference stability and thus some believe this will preclude expansion. I believe this interpretation is incorrect because any alliance will be easier to arrange when the participating conferences have the same number of teams. The Big XII currently has only 10 members to the ACC 14. Lets look at other potential alliance conferences like the Pac 12, which will likely remain at 12 for a long time. It seems unlikely the 4th conference is any of the other major 5 (B1G or SEC, both of which are at 14). That leaves the MAC (at 13), CUSA (at 12 - 14) and the Sun Belt (at 8). Numerically the Big XII will fit into the alliance schedule better with 12-14 teams.

The Big XII has been reluctant to expand. They do not really want to split the current money pie among more members than 10. The TV revenue contract was signed last year and will run through the 2024-25 season so changes to renegotiate and increase revenue may not be easy. However the Big XII is clearly interested in staging a championship game. The new BCS arrangement may also favor conferences with a championship game. However, the NCAA mandate at least 12 teams for a conference to stage a championship game. This alliance talk really suggests the Big XII will expand.

There are two likely potential scenarios for Big XII expansion: one is for the Big XII to go to XIV but this is the less likely scenario unless the additional teams can cause a renegotiation of the TV contracts. As previously stated this scenario will include teams from the ACC such as FSU, Miami and Clemson as there aren't any other available teams out there of significant stature to cause renegotiation. I cannot imaging the Big XII employing a two handed, forked tongue negotiation for an alliance with the ACC and then raiding the ACC for teams.  I guess a deal can be arranged with the ACC to transfer two teams to the Big XII to leave both at 12. Going from 14 to 12 may mean more money for the remaining 12 ACC teams. In the backdrop of an alliance allows them to remain in the play schedule with the ACC still. Teams up for transfer might be FSU, Clemson, Miami and Louisville, all expressed some interests in joining the Big XII. These teams are also valuable football members of the ACC and thus seem unlikely to be "transferred." I understand if these teams are invited and choose to leave the ACC the ACC may not be able to do anything about it. However, the reason for these teams to leave would also be lessened with an alliance; they will be able to regularly play against a more football competitive Big XII and strengthen their game schedule and thus their tier 3 revenues. But given the underlying threat of B1G and SEC raiding the ACC I seriously doubt any serious consideration for the ACC to transfer any teams out. We will know more when the court decide where the Maryland exit suit will be fielded, in Maryland or in North Carolina.

While other teams like BYU, USF, Air Force, Navy, Cincinnati and Louisville (slated for the ACC) are available, no four will be sufficiently worthwhile to trigger TV contract renegotiation. Twelve it will be and no more for the Big XII. I hold with previous prediction of the Big XII will expand with BYU and USF. If so lets look at the new Big XII divisions:

• West: BYU, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and TCU
• East: Baylor, Kansas, Oklahoma State, South Florida, Texas, and West Virginia

The two divisions are roughly equivalent in 60 years football competitiveness by mcubed rating with West at 52.0 and East at 48.2 (lower is better) and 7 years football competitiveness by F+ score with West at 9 and East at 7.2 (higher is better). These divisions also allow all teams equivalent exposure geographically to the heart of the Big XII: Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. This arrangement will necessitate at least one annual protect rivalry across division, possibly two annual protect rivalries. Keeping a nine game conference schedule will mean 5 in-division games and 4 cross-division games (2 annual protected and the remaining 2 split among the remaining 4 cross division teams every other year).

• Team: protected rival 1 & protect rival 2
• Baylor: TCU & BYU
• BYU: West Virginia & Baylor
• Iowa State: South Florida & Kansas
• Kansas: Kansas State & Iowa State
• Kansas State: Kansas & South Florida
• Oklahoma: Oklahoma State & Texas
• Oklahoma State: Oklahoma & Texas Tech
• South Florida: Iowa State & Kansas State
• Texas: Texas Tech & Oklahoma
• TCU: Baylor & West Virginia
• Texas Tech: Texas & Oklahoma State
• West Virginia: BYU & TCU

Note the following:

1. All three religious schools play each other every year.
2. The mountain states play each other (BYU & WVU).
3. Iowa State plays their nearest geographic neighbors (Kansas and Kansas State) as well has access to Florida for recruitment (in addition to Texas).
4. Up comer Kansas State also have access to Florida for recruitment (in addition to Texas).
5. New members BYU and USF have cross division rivalry with current members rather than each other (BYU with WVU and Baylor, USF with Iowa State and Kansas State). 
6. Recent newcomer TCU and WVU are protect rivals.
7. Former MWC members are in the same division: BYU and TCU
8. Former Big East members are in the same division: WVU & USF
9. The following historical Big XII rivalries are thus affected:

• Baylor & TCU rivaly since 1899: Baylor and TCU (every year)
• Bedlam Series since 1904: Oklahoma and Oklahoma State (yearly)
• Chancellor's Spurs since 1928: Texas and Texas Tech (yearly)
• Chisholm Trail since 1913: Kansas State and Texas (every other year)
• Farmageddon since 1917: Iowa State and Kansas State (yearly)
• Red River Rivalry since 1900: Oklahoma and Texas (yearly)
• Sunflower Showdown since 1902: Kansas and Kansas State (yearly)
• Texas Farm Bureau Shootout since 1929: Baylor and Texas Tech (every other year)

Update: A good argument for expansion to host a conference championship game:

There's an argument that a conference championship game, which would necessitate 12 teams, would have elevated 2011 Oklahoma State and 2012 Kansas State -- both with one loss – closer to the top of the standings in a playoff format.

I hadn't thought of how a CCG may actually help land the conference champion in the national championship game rather than hurt the conference champion.

Big 12 Expansion Candidates 2

In a previous post I analyzed potential candidates for Big XII expansion using stadium attendance and mcubed program ranking. But since mcubed ranking was program lifetime ranking, it might be more pertinent to look at the programs more recent record. So I went to Football Outsider and average their F/+ rating (higher is better) for the year 2005-2012. This a computed team performance rating and does not take anything else into account other than on field performance.

For reference I will restate the Big XII mcubed rating (lower is better), and the potential candidates.

• Baylor = 63.2
• Iowa St = 68.7
• Kansas = 63
• Kansas St  = 67.1
• Oklahoma = 21.7
• Oklahoma St = 51.6
• TCU = 63.7
• Texas = 22.4
• Texas Tech = 48.4
• West Virginia = 40
• Big XII average = 50.98

• Expansion Candidates

1. Florida State = 27.6
2. Miami = 33.8
3. BYU = 42.6
4. Clemson = 44.3
5. Virginia Tech = 46.1
6. Pittsburgh = 48.5
7. Syracuse = 49.5
8. South Florida = 50.1
9. Big XII average = 50.98
10. NC State = 52.8
11. Air Force = 57.1
12. Louisville = 63.4
13. Cincinnati = 66.4
14. Navy = 68.9
15. Connecticut = 71
16. Northern Illinois = 78.5

Now lets look at F/+ rating.

• Baylor = -2.3
• Iowa St = -5.4
• Kansas = -4.3
• Kansas St = 2.8
• Oklahoma = 21.2
• Oklahoma St = 12.1
• TCU = 17.9
• Texas = 18.1
• Texas Tech = 7.6
• West Virginia = 14.6
• Big XII average = 8.23

Once again the expansion candidates

1. Virginia Tech = 18
2. Florida State = 14.3
3. Clemson = 13.6
4. BYU = 10.2
5. Miami = 8.9
6. Big XII average = 8.23
7. Pittsburgh = 7.8
8. Cincinnati = 7
9. Louisville = 6.3
10. South Florida = 5.4
11. Connecticut = 1.9
12. NC State = 1
13. Northern Illinois = -0.7
14. Navy = -1.8
15. Air Force = -3
16. Syracuse = -5.7

So looking at competitiveness alone, 5 teams are above the Big XII average: BYU, Clemson, FSU, Miami and Virginia Tech. Of these I believe Virginia Tech is least likely, being wedded to UVA and likely the ACC. Except for BYU, Clemson, FSU and Miami are all in the ACC as well and with a exit penalty of $50 millions, they may not be able to leave. It is estimated that the ACC pays each team $24.4 millions while the Big XII pays $26.2 millions (source). As is the difference is not enough, coupled with the fact that each team in the Big XII will likely make less with more members. That leaves BYU. So if somehow the ACC teams are available, then it might make sense for the Big XII to go to 14 with BYU, Clemson, FSU, and Miami. Wow what a conference that will be, but it seems unlikely.

The following six programs are below the Big XII on both lists: Air Force, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Navy, and Northern Illinois and are thus unlikely candidates for Big XII expansion. Programs that are on either list are Pittsburgh, South Florida, and Syracuse. If the Big XII expands to 12, then BYU will be the 11th and a 12th will come from this group. Of these three, when ranked by the program's worth:

1. BYU = $136.1 millions
2. USF = $101.2 millions
3. Syracuse = $91.4 millions
4. Pittsburgh = $59.6 millions

When ranked by 2012 stadium attendance:

1. BYU = 61,161 (+1%)
2. USF = 44,130 (-1%)
3. Pittsburgh = 41,494 (-10%)
4. Syracuse = 37,953 (-6%)

When ranked by NYT fan base:

1. Pittsburgh = 831,496
2. Syracuse = 769,624
3. BYU = 709,864
4. USF = 520,627

When ranked by states with population changes (standardized to gains or losses of congressional seats) as a metric for the media market potential: 

1. USF (Florida) = +2 (also one of the top three states for football recruits)
2. BYU (Utah) = +1
3. Pittsburgh (Pennsylvania) = -1
4. Syracuse (New York) = -2

By most metrics, but not all, the best available teams outside of the ACC are BYU and USF.

Big 12 Expansion

The Big 12 will meet Jan 28-29 and I am certain expansion will be a topic for discussion. 

While attending the NCAA Convention here, Bowlsby was asked if his conference would have to be reactive in whatever next form conference realignment takes. In each of the last two offseasons, the Big 12 has had to replace two teams. While no one expects the conference to lose teams -- it has a rock-solid, 13-year grant-of-rights -- the league may have a big decision to make about adding teams.
For 2013, the Big 12 and Big East will be FBS' smallest conferences (10 teams).
“We could be proactive [in conference alignment], I think,” Bowlsby said.

Again as I previously stated expansion will be dependent on

1. How not having a conference championship help or hurt the Big XII for the BCS.

At the moment, Big 12 schools cash TV rights revenue checks for approximately $20 million per year. One industry source said the league could be making as much as $30 million per school in 2014, the first year of the playoff.

2. How much more money having a championship game will bring in.

CBSSports.com also reported that a 12-team Big 12 that played a conference championship game would get only $700,000-$1 million more per school per year. Bowlsby reiterated Wednesday that he supports doing away with an NCAA bylaw that requires conferences to have 12 teams to stage a league championship game.

3. What teams are available for consideration and whether they will add value to the conference. We all know programs like FSU, Clemson, and Miami will bring value but their exit fee with the ACC may not make them available.

The dominoes could start tumbling again if the Big Ten once again raided the ACC. That would create instability that could lead to this scenario: Clemson and Florida State calling the Big 12. At that point the Big 12 would have that decision to make. Stay at 10 or expand to further flyover states for potentially more conference revenue.
But could the Big 12 make a move before it has to make a move? Florida State certainly has seemed willing to listen in the past. Along with Maryland, is the other ACC team that didn't vote for the $50 million exit fee. As of last month the hottest buzz in the industry had the Big Ten targeting Georgia Tech and Virginia.

But this particular bit is interesting.

“That's exactly one of the questions we'll be asking ourselves,” Bowlsby said Wednesday. “Look at Maryland and Rutgers. They don't bring programs that are of the ilk of the others in the Big Ten. The philosophy clearly is: ‘As members of the Big Ten we can grow them.' “

This seems to leave the door open for lesser teams than FSU, Clemson, and Miami to be considered if they could prosper and grow once a member. In many ways both TCU and WVU fit this mold and will be better as members of the Big XII than before. Never the less both teams entered the Big XII with a history of being competitive already. That is why I think USF should be considered. USF has a good mcubed rating of 50.1, which is slightly better than the Big XII average of 51. (BYU is 42.5) More importantly in favor of USF is in one of the top three states for recruitment of college football players (the other being Texas and California).

FBS Program Proposed Value, Validated

In a previous post I sought to analyze the available FBS teams value for realignment considerations.  I used two resources. Firstly is mcubed which take a team's football record from 1960 through 2012 analyzed and ranked; lower is thus better. This gives me an understanding how competitive a team is, along with its competitive reputation. Second is the team's popularity and I use the actual averaged stadium attendance for 2012, with a percentage change from 2011. I then took the attendance figure divided by the mcubed rank to get one number, and this time the bigger the figure the higher the value, at least as by my method.

I will now attempt to validate this method of analysis and valuation through internal comparison of the value of the Big XII teams with each other, then with a WSJ estimation of the major FBS teams dollar worth. So here is the Big 12 ranked.

• Program: attendance / mcubed = value 

1. Texas: 100,884 / 22.4 = 4,503
2. Oklahoma: 85,243 21.7 = 3,928
3. West Virginia: 55,916 / 40 = 1397
4. Texas Tech: 57,209 / 48.4 = 1,182
5. Oklahoma St: 56,557 / 51.6 = 1,096
6. Iowa St: 55,274 / 68.7 = 804
7. Kansas St: 50,278 / 67.1 = 749
8. TCU: 46,047 / 63.7 = 722
9. Kansas: 41,329 / 63 = 656
10. Baylor: 41,194 / 63.2 = 651

• Average: 58,993.1 / 50.98 = 1157

The top two programs Texas and Oklahoma appears correct. West Virginia, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State are also correctly placed in the top half of the conference. West Virginia rank may be higher because their competitiveness is based largely against Big East programs, typically seen and less competitive than the Big XII. But Kansas State appears inappropriately low bunched in the bottom half of the conference. Lets look at the WSJ worth ranking.

• Program: Value (in million $)

1. Texas: 761.7
2. Oklahoma: 454.7
3. Texas Tech: 211
4. Oklahoma State: 209.1
5. Kansas State: 207.1
6. West Virginia: 159.4
7. Iowa State: 140.3
8. Kansas: 103.4
9. Texas Christian: 76.6
10. Baylor: 71.3

So again the top 2 teams are similar to my valuation calculation, as is the bottom Baylor. Texas Tech and Oklahoma State are also very close together. Kansas State rates higher per the WSJ than West Virginia did, likely because West Virginia only just join from the Big East, a lower value conference. While not directly correlative, the analyzed value appears approximately reasonable. Lets look at the programs under consideration again, and compare them against the Big XII average.

• Program: attendance / mcubed = value (value in millions)

1. Florida State: 75,601 / 27.6 = 2,739 ($159)
2. Clemson: 79,429 / 44.3 = 1,792 ($201.8)
3. BYU: 61,161 / 42.6 = 1,435 ($136.1)
4. Miami: 47,719 / 33.8 = 1,411 ($157.7)

• Big XII Average: 58,993.1 / 50.98 = 1157

1. South Florida: 44,130 / 50.1 = 880 ($101.2)
2. Pittsburgh: 41494 / 48.5 = 855 ($59.6)
3. Louisville: 49,991 / 63.4 = 788 ($75.4)
4. Syracuse: 37,953 / 49.5 = 766 ($91.4)
5. Air Force: 32,015 / 57.1 = 560 (?)
6. Connecticut: 34,672 / 71 = 488 ($101.8)
7. Navy: 32,363 / 68.9 = 469 (?)
8. Cincinnati: 29,138 / 66.4 = 438 ($48.9)

Again Florida State and Clemson show themselves to be top of the list and well above the Big XII average. BYU and Miami also show themselves to be above the Big XII average. The Big XII should be cautious in taking program below Big XII average. Likely the Big XII will only take lower value program to go to 12 and I continue to believe South Florida is the best candidate of the rest. The value of Air Force and Navy remain unknown economically, but their perceived value appear high.

Houston & SMU, where to?

Where should SMU & Houston go to? Big East? MWC? CUSA? Things to consider:

1. Money. Payout from the Big East is uncertain. Payout from the MWC will be about $1-2M. Payout for CUSA will be about $2M.

2. Competition. I am using mcubed analysis of the team's entire team's competitive history. Lower is better.

Big East
Cincinnati = 66.4
UConn = 71
USF  = 50.1
Temple = 75.7
Navy = 68.9
Memphis = 69.8
ECU = 61.5
Tulane = 82
Central Florida  = 60.2
Big East average = 67.2888888888889

MWC
Air Force  = 57
Boise St. = 34
Colorado St. = 71
Fresno St. = 67
Hawaii = 64
Nevada = 65
New Mexico = 76
San Diego St. = 54
San Jose St. = 77
UNLV = 81
Utah St. = 69
Wyoming  = 61
MWC average = 64.6666666666667

CUSA
Southern Mississippi = 53.4
Louisiana Tech = 66.6
Rice = 82.7
UAB = 89.6
UTSA = ?
Marshall = 82.7
Tulsa = 63.5
UN Charlotte = ? 
UTEP = 87.6
Old Dominion = ?
Middle Tennessee = 86.5
North Texas = 81.9
Florida International = 94.5
Florida Atlantic = 88.9
CUSA average = 79.8090909090909

3. Fan Base. For this I am using Nate Silver's analysis in the NYT from 2011.

Big East
Cincinnati = 322757
UConn = 618724
USF 5 = 520627
Temple = 226483
Navy = 237222
Memphis = 235656
ECU = 348391
Tulane = 101701
Central Florida 6 = 506679
Big East total = 3,118,240


MWC
Air Force  = 213946
Boise St.  = 483489
Colorado St. = 199506
Fresno St. = 251472
Hawaii = 295024
Nevada = 187221
New Mexico = 171154
San Diego St. = 242126
San Jose St. = 60292
UNLV = 136687
Utah St. = 65129
Wyoming  = 302935
MWC total = 2,608,981

CUSA
Southern Mississippi = 361613
Louisiana Tech = 179991
Rice = 126901
UAB = 236825
UTSA  = ?
Marshall = 225810
Tulsa = 119686
UN Charlotte = ?
UTEP = 114592
Old Dominion = ?
Middle Tennessee = 169621
North Texas = 202188
Florida International = 178669
Florida Atlantic = 145469
CUSA total = 2,061,365

4. Regional Population growth. All of the above are based on the past. Now I want to factor in regional population growth to suggest future movement. To simplify things I will just look at the states within the conference congressional seats gains and losses.

Big East = net -2 (+2 for Florida, -2 for Ohio, -1 for Louisiana, and -1 for Pennsylvania)
MWC = net +2 (+1 for Nevada and +1 for Utah)
CUSA = net +1 (+2 for Florida and -1 for Louisiana; Texas was not included as this is the native state for SMU and Houston)

Thus far the Big East has the edge in fan numbers (#3), the MWC has the edge in competition (#2) and regional population growth (#4), and CUSA has the tentative edge in payout (#1).

5. Unqualifiable. Food for thought.

Big East: instability.
MWC: access to the Pac12 by playing in Pac12 states of Colorado, Utah, and California. There is no way the B1G, Big XII or the SEC will consider either SMU or Houston. The ACC is just too far away, and the AAU North Carolina schools along with UVA will be too snobby to invite either programs. The Pac12 is hemmed in with limited options for expansion and should they want Texas, SMU and Houston could both be considered. In addition, the Bowl payout deal from the MWC gives the competing team a 50% share.
CUSA: ego of having to swallow their pride and go back to CUSA could be a factor. However, there are some good rivalry in CUSA like Tulsa, Southern Mississippi and Louisiana Tech that could be a draw.

Overall I think the MWC has a slight edge of appeal for SMU and Houston over the Big East and CUSA.

FBS Realignment 2

As a follow up to my previous post on what could happen with FBS conferences realignment, I thought to put forth my preference.


My preference would be for the Big XII to go to Big XIV in 2014 with the addition of Pittsburgh, Florida State, Miami and Northern Illinois. Once the Big XII go to 12, divisions will have to be set up, in which case might as well go to XIV. The Big XII already owns the rights to Big XIV. Regarding divisional alignment, I would set up a zipper through Texas (2 teams each), Oklahoma, Kansas, Florida, ISU v NIU, and Pittsburgh v WVU. Fourteen teams means divisions of 7 for 6 in-division games, 1 annual cross-division rivalry game, and 2 rotating cross-division games (one away and one home game) among the remaining 6 cross-division teams.

Division A & Division B, listed as annual cross division games.

Baylor & Texas Christian
Texas & Texas Tech (Chancellor's Spurs since 1928)
Oklahoma & Oklahoma State (Bedlam Series since 1904)
Kansas & Kansas State (Sunflower Showdown since 1902)
Northern Illinois & Iowa State
West Virginia & Pittsburgh (Backyard Brawl)
Miami & Florida State (Battle of Sunshine State)


As a result of this the ACC will need three teams: UConn, USF, and Cincinnati.

Atlantic Division & Coastal Division, listed as annual cross division games.
Boston College & Southern Florida
Clemson & Georgia Tech
Virginia Tech & Virginia
North Carolina State & North Carolina
Wake Forest & Duke
Syracuse & UConn
Louisville & Cincinnati


The MAC can hold at 12 or approach Temple, Navy, Army, Marshall, and or Western Kentucky for 14 teams.

West Division: Bowling Green, Toledo, Miami Ohio, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan, and Ball State
East Division: Kent State, Akron, Ohio, Massachusetts, Buffalo, Navy, and Army

Alternative MAC with zippered divisions, listed as annual cross rivalry games:
Division A & Division B
Ohio & Miami (Battle of the Bricks for 89 games)
Central Michigan & Western Michigan (the Victory Cannon for 83 games)Bowling Green & Toledo (Peace Pipe for 76 games)
Kent State & Akron (Wagon Wheel for 54 games)
Massachusetts & Buffalo
Eastern Michigan & Ball State
Navy & Army


The MWC can take San Diego State, SMU and Houston to go to 14.

Mountain Division & West Division, listed as annual cross division games.
Colorado St. & Air Force
Nevada Las Vegas & Nevada
San Jose St. & Fresno St.
Wyoming  & Boise St.
San Diego St. & Hawaii
New Mexico & Utah St.
Southern Methodist & Houston


The remnant of the new Big East, Tulane, Memphis, ECU, UCF, will be unable to form a new conference and will return to the CUSA, leaving them with 18 unless a few schools (such as Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Middle Tennessee, and North Texas) decides to return to the Sun Belt. In that case the CUSA will remain at 14 (Houston and SMU will be replaces with North Carolina Charlotte, Old Dominion, UT San Antonio, and Louisiana Tech).

West Division: Tulsa, Rice, UTEP, UTSA, Memphis, Louisiana Tech, and Tulane
East Division: Marshall, ECU, UCF, UAB, Old Dominion, UNC Charlotte

Alternative CUSA zippered, listed as annual cross division games.
Division A & Division B
Southern Mississippi & Memphis
Louisiana Tech & Tulane
Rice & Tulsa
Alabama Birmingham & Central Florida
Eastern Carolina & North Carolina Charlotte 
Texas San Antonio & Texas El Paso
Marshall & Old Dominion


The Sun Belt will have 12 with the current 10 and the addition of Texas State and Georgia State.

West Division: Arkansas State, Louisiana Lafayette, Louisiana Monroe, North Texas, Texas State, and South Alabama
East Division: Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, Troy, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Georgia State
(Texas Arlington & Arkansas Little Rock)

Alternatively Sun Belt can also move to a zippered conference format with an annual cross division rival:
Division A & Division B
Louisiana Lafayette & Louisiana Monroe (Battle of the Bayou)

Georgia State & Arkansas State

South Alabama & Troy

Middle Tennessee & Western Kentucky

North Texas & Texas State

Florida International & Florida Atlantic(Shula Bowl)

Left unaligned are Notre Dame, Temple, BYU, Idaho, and New Mexico State.

FBS Realignment

I understand realignment is driven by money, but somewhere a bigger pie won't make up for more slices in terms of the number of members and the available weeks for the members to play each other. Currently there are 12 weeks to a regular season. All teams will want to play non conference opponents to maintain non-conference rivalries, get in trial games, and gain exposures. Thus I believe most teams will want at least 3 non-conference games and this will leave 9 for conference plays. A ten teams conference such as the Big XII has a nine games conference schedule. However, a ten teams conference cannot hold a conference championship and loses out on an extra game to make money for the conference. If the championship game can bring in the cost of having two additional teams over ten then this will be a win win for the conference. A twelve teams conference with two divisions of 6 would yield 5 in-division games and up to 4 cross-division games. A fourteen teams conference with two divisions of 7 would yield 6 in-division games and up to 3 cross-division games. A sixteen teams conference with two divisions of 8 would  yield 7 in-division games and 2 cross-division games. However, 2 cross-division games against 8 teams mean one home and one away staggered results in 2 games every 8 years; might as well not be in the same conference. Thus I believe 16 teams conference is unwieldy. Thus I see 12 or 14 as the ideal size for a conference.

Thus when looking at conference expansion and realignment, I believe most major conference realignment must consider their current size as well as well as expansion options. By major conference I mean the big 5 as classified by the BCS starting 2014 to be the B1G, SEC, Pac12, BigXII, and ACC.

The B1G just acquired Rutgers and U Maryland to go to 14. I do not see them expanding further anytime soon and I do believe when they go looking they will want an AAU school. Westward there is only Iowa State but the B1G is already in Iowa and there just isn't much to gain by adding Iowa State. Kansas is unlikely as they will not travel without Kansas State. Southward there is the SEC and they are happy where they are. Eastward are UVA, UNC, Duke, and Georgia Tech. These are all ACC schools and I will express why none of these schools will leave for the B1G.

SEC is already at 14 with the recent addition of Texas A&M and Missouri. The only candidates they would look for would be a North Carolina school and a Virginia school to expand their footprint. Again these are ACC programs and I do not see them leaving.

Pac12 is currently at 12 but their expansion options are limited now that the Texas and Oklahoma schools have locked themselves in with the Big XII. There are six potential candidates for the Pac12 and they are BYU, Hawaii, Nevada, UNLV, Colorado State and Utah State. Given the current structures of the Pac12 membership of 2+ schools per state, the U and its sibling State U, I can see the next two additions being Colorado State and Utah State. I just do not see BYU or any other MWC teams being invited.

Big XII is currently at 10 and will expand. They can take 2-4 teams given that they already own the rights to the Big XIV. Who they take will depend on what happens with Maryland exit from the ACC and the $50 millions fee. If Maryland's exit goes well and not have to pay most of the $50 millions, then the Big XII will raid the ACC for Florida State and Clemson or Miami to go to 12. If Maryland's exit is difficult, then it will be difficult for the Big XII to buy out an ACC team in the same manner the B1G can help with Maryland's exit. In that case I believe the best candidates for the Big XII are Louisville, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, South Florida, Northern Illinois, and BYU. Though committed to the ACC, that they are not yet full members and thus, like TCU, may be able to leave with minimal cost. Pittsburgh would make a great regional partner for West Virginia and resume the backyard brawl rivalry. Pittsburgh is also a good market, a good program, and reasonably competitive in football. Cincinnati could be taken with Louisville for the regional synergy with each other as well as with Pittsburgh and West Virginia. Again the Keg of Nail rivalry between Louisville and Cincinnati would be preserved. Three teams would result in an odd number and team number 14 will be needed. South Florida will bring the Big XIV to Florida but will be on its own without realistic prospect for a future partner other than Miami. BYU would give the Big XIV an national marque. Northern Illinois will be considered only if they win against Florida State in the Orange Bowl as they might make a nice regional rival for Iowa State and provide a foothold in the Chicago market.

The ACC conference will hold largely because the core of the conference are the North Carolina schools and the Virginia schools, much like the Big XII held because of Texas and Oklahoma. These 6 schools, UNC, NC State, Duke, Wake Forest, UVA and VT will allow the ACC to endure, and as such so will BC. Whether Clemson, GT, FSU and Miami leave will depend in part on what happens with Maryland's exit. GT is attractive to the B1G and will need a partner to be taken, but Clemson, FSU and Miami are not AAU members. All four might be attractive to the Big XII. If the Maryland exit is difficult these four teams will not leave. If the Big XII then take Pittsburgh and Louisville, the ACC will counter by taking UConn (despite BC resistance in order to maintain a northern foothold with Syracuse), Navy and South Florida (possibly). My bet is Clemson, GT, FSU and Miami will all stay with the ACC.

In my opinion the Big East, without the Catholic BB schools, and without Boise State and probably SDSU in football, will likely cease to exist as an independent FBS conference. Some have suggested some sort of merger with CUSA and I think this is reasonable. The alternative is to build itself as a new football conference but with membership consisting of Temple, Navy, UConn, Cincinnati, USF, UCF, ECU, Memphis, Tulane, SMU and Houston, this grouping of teams has neither cohesion nor identity to exist as a whole.

Of the minor conferences, I believe the MAC appears most stable. With the addition of UMass they are at 13. They should be searching for a 14th and the best options are Temple (which was a member before bolting for the Big East), UConn (if they are not taken by the ACC), Marshal and Western Kentucky (both current CUSA members), and possibly Army.

The MWC will got to 12 with at least Boise State and SDSU. They could go with 14 with SMU and Houston, both Big East invitees. SMU and Houston will move west only if they believe the competition is better in the MWC, to recruit in California rather than Florida, and thus potentially lay the exposure groundwork in Pac 12 markets for future considerations by the Big XII. Neither are candidates for the Big XII or the SEC. Alternative schools are BYU, UTEP, Tulsa, Idaho, New Mexico State. BYU is unlikely because as long as they can set up 6 games with MWC teams, they will be fine with their current TV arrangements. Idaho and New Mexico State are also unlikely because they just don't have a tradition of being competitive.

The Sun Belt are scheduled to lose FAU, FIU, UNT and Middle Tennessee to the CUSA but is gaining Texas State, Georgia State, and UT Arlington (non football) to end at 9 football members. The Sun Belt should make every effort to keep at least three of these programs to get to 12 for a conference championship game. FAU and FIU should be taken as a set to keep Florida. UNT should be consider as a Texas partner with Texas State and similarly Middle Tennessee make a nice regional partner for Western Kentucky. If all four teams are kept the Sun Belt should look at New Mexico State to bring the conference membership to 14. Alternatively the Sun Belt could reach out to USF, UCF and ECU to got to 12 but this seem unlikely. With a presence in Florida and Texas the conference should be decent.

CUSA can pick up former members that left for the Big East that could not found membership in the Majors. These are SMU, Houston, ECU, Memphis, Tulane, and UCF. They are already at 12 so these will take them to 18. If Houston and SMU decide to go to the MWC, and if FAU, FIU, UNT and Middle Tennessee stay in the Sun Belt then CUSA should make an effort to take USF and or Navy. CUSA membership would be the current members, minus Houston and SMU, with Old Dominion, North Carolina Charlotte, UT San Antonio, and Louisiana Tech, without the Sun Belt additions, would leave the CUSA with 14, 16 with USF and Navy.

Big 14 and Beyond

There has been new rumors regarding Big XII expansion so I want to update this earlier post to accommodate the potential new addition of Florida State University, along with some potential ACC stable mates. Firstly, the division split are based on matched regional rivalries and so that these match teams will be in opposite divisions but will play annually, preferably opening conference play so that should they both end up being devision champs, the rematch will be the last conference champs. These matched regional teams will also even up travel for teams in both divisions and provide equivalent regional exposures. Thirdly existing Big XII teams should be matched with newcomers as much as possible. Thus I present:

Division A & Division B
Baylor & Texas Christian
Texas & Texas Tech (Chancellor's Spurs since 1928)
Oklahoma & Oklahoma State (Bedlam Series since 1904)
Kansas State & Kansas (Sunflower Showdown since 1902)
Iowa State & Notre Dame/Louisville/Northern Illinois
West Virginia & Virginia Tech (Black Diamond Trophy)
Florida State & Miami (Battle of Sunshine State)

Note each division has 2 Texas teams, 1 Oklahoma team, 1 Kansas team, 1 Midwest team, 1 Appalacia team, and 1 Florida team. The most difficult match was for Iowa State and though Notre Dame maybe ideal in terms of draw, academic and regionality, it still seem unlikely Notre Dame would join any conference. After Notre Dame I think Louisville, who is favored to join the Big XII would be a decent regional match. However, I actually think Northern Illinois, who field a pretty decent football team and located just in the neighboring state would make the best match for Iowa State. To make the Big XVI take Clemson & Georgia Tech to gain the South Carolina and Georgia market. 

Division A & Division B
Baylor & Texas Christian
Texas & Texas Tech (Chancellor's Spurs since 1928)
Oklahoma & Oklahoma State (Bedlam Series since 1904)
Kansas State & Kansas (Sunflower Showdown since 1902)
Iowa State & Notre Dame/Louisville/Northern Illinois
West Virginia & Virginia Tech (Black Diamond Trophy)
Florida State & Miami (Battle of Sunshine State)
Clemson & Georgia Tech

Now that is a super conference!
 An alternative match set: to Clemson & Georgia Tech would be Cincinnati & Louisville (Keg of Nails since 1929)

Big 12: Old vs New by BCS points

BCS Points are described here. The next evaluation will look at the 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 season. The points are used as part 3 of a 3 parts evaluation to determine automatic qualification for the 2012-2013 season.

So lets look at how the old Big 12 compares to the new Big 12 with the 2008, 2009 and 2010 seasons.

0 for Baylor
0 for Colorado
0 for Iowa State
0 for Kansas
0 for Kansas State
4 for Missouri
3 for Nebraska
9 for Oklahoma
5 for Oklahoma St
12 for Texas
2 for Texas A&M
3 for Texas Tech
38 total points

So here is the Big 12 as it appears now for 2012, having lost Colorado, Missouri, Nebraska, and Texas A&M but with Texas Christian and West Virginia over the same time period.


0 for Baylor
0 for Iowa State
0 for Kansas
0 for Kansas State
9 for Oklahoma
5 for Oklahoma St
12 for Texas
15 for Texas Christian
3 for Texas Tech
3 for West Virginia
47 total points

The new Big 12 even with just 10 teams is nearly 24% better than the old in raw points. Since the BCS formula then modify this for conferences less than 12 teams, the 10 teams Big 12 will gain a 12.5% bonus to yield a modified points of 52.875 points.

Should the Big 12 decides to go to 12 with Louisville and Cincinnati, the new points would be:

0 for Baylor
9 for Cincinnati
0 for Iowa State
0 for Kansas
0 for Kansas State
0 for Louisville
9 for Oklahoma
5 for Oklahoma St
12 for Texas
15 for Texas Christian
3 for Texas Tech
3 for West Virginia
56 total points

Going to 12 teams with both Louisville and Cincinnati will make the Big 12 even stronger by BCS points, not just to mention more markets for viewers and fans, and the Ohio river valley to recruit.

Alliance: C-USA and MWC

Alot still depends on what happens to the Big East despite rumored invitations to Air Force, Boise State, Central Florida, Houston, Navy, and Southern Methodist. Any teams joining the Big East must realize that realignment of current Big East teams is not over. Per the West Virginia suit against the Big East state what we all know, that Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Rutgers and South Florida are all leaving. In fact, there may not be a Big East football conference if the Big 12 takes Cincinnati, Louisville, and South Florida while the ACC (or less likely the B1G) takes Connecticut and Rutgers for 2014.

The demise of the Big East, will best position the Alliance of C-USA and MWC to gain an automatic bid to the BCS. Whether each conference should have its own championship game is open for discussion due to NCAA rules. The Alliance championship game must be played in time for the BCS selection, as well as for the loser to be directed to its own bowl. Most likely this will be the first weekend in December, same time as the other conferences championship games. If there is a conference championship game then it will occur during "rivalry weekend" of Thanksgiving. The differentiation during both weekends might favor more for the C-USA and MWC conferences: Alliance championship rather than conference championship and conference championship rather than conference rivalries. But since the schedule is moved forward one week, and since the season cannot be moved forward one week (NCAA rules) then the Alliance teams may lose its bye week.

For each conference lets look at what the membership would be like, with and without losses.

C-USA.
Losing Central Florida, Houston and Southern Methodist the conference could stay at 9, add one to go to 10 (Louisiana Tech from the WAC) or add three (Louisiana Tech, upcoming UT San Antonio, and Texas State, all from the WAC). The two new Texas teams could replace Houston and Southern Methodists in the division line up, while Louisiana Tech could be in the East to replace Central Florida or in the West with Tulane moving East. If the three teams lost were Central Florida, Southern Mississippi and Tulane, then the 6 Texas teams would be West, and Tulsa and Louisiana Tech would be in the East.

Losing just one team like Central Florida the conference could stay at 11 or take Louisiana Tech (WAC) to go back to 12. Of the one team lost was Tulane, then Louisiana Tech would slide right in Tulane's spot.

MWC
Losing 2 teams (Boise State and Air Force) the conference will need two replacements and again it will be the WAC that will be raided: Utah State fills a geographic deficit, leaving Idaho, New Mexico State, and San Jose State. All four teams could take the conference to 12. Its division could be split East (Colorado State, Idaho, New Mexico, New Mexico State, Utah State and Wyoming) and West (Fresno State, Hawaii, San Diego State, San Jose State, Nevada, and Nevada Las Vegas).

It is quite possible that like the Big East, the WAC could be eliminated as a football conference. I think conference consolidations from 11 to 9 could be a good thing and one step further to equalizing the conferences with a playoff or BCS.

Big 12 Realignment.

Missouri is officially going to the SEC for 2012.

That leaves the Big XII with:
Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
Texas Christian
Texas Tech
and West Virginia.

When West Virginia can start Big XII play remains unclear as they are suing, and being counter sued, by the Big East, to start Bug XII play in 2012. A big question still as a drag out legal contest in itself, regardless of who wins, may prevent a working schedule for the Big XII play. I have no question they can play by 2013 because that is when the Big East will be reconstituted with new members, who themselves have a year hold obligation with their own current conferences.

Thus if there is only 9 teams in the Big XII then television contracts might have to be renegotiated (from the TV carriers) as I believe the threshold for this is 10 teams. The only one of the independent team is likely to be able to start conference play by 2012. Of the four, Army is not interested in any conference, Navy is being courted by the Big East, Notre Dame won't give up its independence to help out any conference, and so that leaves BYU. BYU was previously courted by the Big XII but nothing became of it for uncertain and unpublished reasons. Unpublished means that there is still an opportunity to renegotiate. Interesting enough, BYU has also been mentioned as a traveling partner for Boise State to go to the Big East. If BYU turned down the Big XII, I would be skeptical they would choose the Big East instead, but if the Big East was more pliant, then it could happen.

The Big XII needs to make a renewed push for BYU, and perhaps to entice it, consider taking Boise State as well. I understand that there is concerned about Boise State's academics, and a programs academic's reputation and standing lingers longer than on field football prowess, but as long as there is a commitment to academic excellence, it might be reasonable to consider them.

Taking both BYU and Boise State would leave the conference at 12, where the conference started in 2010. But when you rebuild, you should always look to rebuild bigger and better. Again I believe the Big XII should become the Big XIV, no later than 2014. Work today and make plans for tomorrow. Going to XIV would also allow the Big XII to renegotiate its TV contracts for more money, not just keep the same or lose (if there is only 9 teams for 2012).

Who should these 2 teams be? Again we should keep the idea of loco-regional rivalry and traveling partner in mind. Thus i propose the following "couples" in order of appeal.
1. Central Florida & South Florida. Pros: Both are reasonably competitive programs. Both are within a major media market. Both have good fan bases. Both are located in a state rich in potential recruits. Cons: Neither has a long history for football in the national college football psyche. Distance from the Big XII (though this is a minor con).
2. Cincinnati & Louisville. Pros: Both are current AQ conference members. Both are competitive in football. Both have good media markets for viewers. Both have good fan bases. Both are in the Ohio Valley region for recruiting purposes. And both are ready and willing. In addition, Louisville has an excellent basketball program. Cons: While competitive, neither has a long history for football in the national college football psyche.
3. Southern Mississippi & Tulane. Pros: Both are in good football recruiting areas of the Southeastern Conference. Southern Mississippi has a long tradition of football competitiveness and Tulane has a long tradition for academics as an AAU member. Cons: Southern Mississippi has a decent fan base but no significant TV market. Tulane is in a good TV market but with a small fan base, it is unclear they can deliver viewers.
4. Colorado State & Wyoming. Pros: Both are neighboring states. Both has decent fan bases (similar in size to Louisville & Cincinnati). Colorado State is in a former Big XII state with likely many Big XII viewers already. Wyoming has the Wyoming market locked up. Cons: Neither are in good media market. While decent, neither are particularly strong on the football field. Neither are in states rich with recruits.
5. Houston & Southern Methodist. Pros: Both are competitive on the field. Both are in good media markets. Cons: Both are in Texas where there is already 4 Big XII teams so unclear whether there will be a gain in viewers, fans or recruits. Both have relatively small fan bases and thus may not deliver their media market.
6. Rice & Tulane. Pros: Both are AAU members. Both are in good media markets. Cons: Both are poor football performers. Both have small fan base and thus may not deliver their media market.

So a reconfigured Big XII
Division A & Division B (as annual cross division rivalry games)
Kansas State & Kansas (Sunflower Showdown since 1902)
Oklahoma & Oklahoma State (Bedlam Series since 1904)
Texas & Texas Tech (Chancellor's Spurs since 1928)
Baylor & Texas Christian (Great Revival since 1899)
Iowa State & West Virginia

the additions:
Brigham Young & Boise State
Central Florida & South Florida
Cincinnati & Louisville
Tulane & Southern Mississippi
Colorado State & Wyoming
Southern Methodist & Houston
Rice & Tulane

Notes:
1. Interesting enough, taking Central Florida & South Florida as well as Cincinnati & Louisville will likely kill off the Big East before they can reform. Then their BCS Auto Qualifier can go to the MWC & C-USA Alliance Champion.
2. The two matched teams, being loco-regional rivalries, should try to stagger their home games so that in any fall weekends, there will be a nearby Big 12 game within driving distance, whether it be in Provo or Boise, Orlando or Tampa Bay, Cincinnati or Louisville, New Orleans or Hattiesburg, Fort Collins or Laramie, Dallas and Houston, or Houston & New Orleans.
3. Alternative pairings would be BYU & WVU (West & East) and Iowa State & Tulane (North & South). All pairings should be somewhat competitive.
4. My preferred are Cincinnati & Louisville and Rice & Tulane.

Big 12 Expansion: WVU sues the Big East

With the threat of Mizzou's impeding move, the Big 12 may only have 9 teams for 2012, which appears to put them at jeopardy for meeting their end of the TV contract. This is why they have been talking about Mizzou playing in 2012. As a fail safe they approach BYU but that has hit an impasse. Then they approach the next teams on their list, WVU and Louisville. WVU was willing to try to get out of the Big East in time for 2012 play so here we are. WVU has filed a lawsuit to leave the Big East before the 27 months hold and start Big 12 play in 2012.

Without this lawsuit, the Big East would have rebuilt itself for 2013 play, and the all the Big East teams who wanted out would likely have been out by 2013 rather than 2014. So in all likelihood this lawsuit makes for a 1 year difference. The Big 12 could have taken a harder look for a 2013 arrival while continuing to work on BYU. The Big 12 could and should have worked harder to keep Missouri. All the same time they could have taken Louisville, Cincinnati and WVU and declare the Big 12 is becoming the Big 14 by 2014. Any TV contract problems with 9 members should Missouri leaves could have been renegotiated in light of a forth comming Big 14.

This 27 month clause is similar to the 1 year clause by the C-USA, and even the 6 years tier 1 & tier 2 ownership clause by the Big 12. WVU was a willing participant of the 27 months Big East clause, as it is now a willing participant of the 6 years media ownership clause of the Big 12. These clauses serve the conference members by insuring short term stability, and enough time for the conference to reconstitute itself. I think this lawsuit really put WVU, and the Big 12, in a bad light. I am thinking when will WVU do the same to the Big 12. I am thinking how manipulative the Big 12 appears. The Big 1G, the ACC, the SEC, and the Pac10 did not need any such shenanigans.

Big East: Rebuild for Synergy

The Big East is having a tough year. So far three football programs have officially declared their departure (Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and West Virginia) and three more are looking to leave (Cincinnati, Connecticut, and Louisville). To rebuild, the Big East is looking to rebuild with teams like Air Force, Boise State, Central Florida, Houston, Navy, Southern Methodist, and possibly Army and Temple. Of these I do not believe Air Force or Boise State will join up. In fact, the target goal of the new Big East is 12 teams; I think they should plan for 14 just in case Louisville and Cincinnati both decides to leave. The teams under consideration are the best available from the C-USA, MAC, and independents but I believe additional teams should be considered.

There are no major teams left but the Big East did pretty good taking C-USA teams and with a higher level of competition, made them more competitive (Cincinnati, Louisville, and USF all come to mind) if not on the field definitely on college football fans' awareness. The best way to rebuild the Big East is to make sure that TVs are tuned to Big East games. Major media market are needed but rather than spread out to cover more markets, major markets within "reach" should be saturated. By this I mean have two Big East teams to cover each market so that each fall weekend a Big East game is played loco-regionally. The two teams thus should alternate home games for the season, with one game against each other to open the season. Once awareness is maintained or even raised, it will be easier to recruit and thus build better teams in the process.

Thus I propose the following. Listed are two teams set for synergy, each will play each other once a year every year but will be in different divisions of the Big East. Each team will also play 5-6 in division games (5 for a Big East with 12 teams, 6 for a Big East with 14 teams) as well as 2 rotating cross division games (staggered for a home and away game each). I have arranged the divisions based also on each team's average ranking from 1960-2010 as listed at mcubed. I have also included two teams making the transition from D2 to D1 for their geography, Villanova and UMass (both in italics below). These two teams will be placed in separate divisions. A contest should be conducted to name the two divisions as they will not be amenable to East & West or North & South. In the list, current Big East programs are in bold. Since in basketball divisions will not matter so much as all teams can play each other, the basketball only non-football programs are not listed.

Division A & Division B (mcubed average ranking 1960-2010)
Cincinnati (67.1) & Louisville (63.3) [Ohio Valley]
Connecticut (69.3) & Massachusetts (NA) [New England]
Buffalo (96.7) & Rutgers (73.2) [New York & Jersey]
South Florida (46.3) & Central Florida (72.3) [Florida]
Southern Methodist (69.3) & Houston (53.1) [Texas]
Villanova (89.9) & Temple (76.4) [Philadelphia]
Navy (68.7) & Army (80.5) [Military]
Average mcubed (72.5) & (69.8)

The two matched programs should open conference play with each other. Given inclusion of a bye week, all Big East programs can open conference play over two weekends. To foster a sense of rivalry and Big East conference should pay for a trophy of some sort trophy to represent these games but allow the two teams to name the trophy. The Big East would be smart to award the winner of the trophy a donation to their general scholarship fund ($10k+?). A scholarship contribution would make it more than a game trophy and get buy in from students (prospective, current, and alumni) and faculty. The Big East would be extra smart if it uses the exit fee money from teams leaving to create an endowment fund for a "Big East" scholarship at each schools (to remain at each school as long as they are members). The rivalry game prize money would go into this endowment fund. All this would generate a certain buzz and allow the Big East to market their conference play openers.

The Big East should also open conference play with the annual cross division rivalry games because it is possible that both teams could become division champions and a rematch could occur in the Big East championship game. Better to put as many games between their first encounter and their last encounter.

This Big East does not guarantee an automatic bid to the BCS (average rankings for the new Big East is 71.3 as compared to 57 for the old) but it does help lay a foundation for a good conference. How so? Well in addition to markets and marketing opportunities, this Big East will also have footprints in 5 of the top 10 states for for football recruitment according to Rivals (#1 Texas, #2 Florida, #5 Ohio, #6 Pennsylvania, and #10 New Jersey. The Big East has to rebuild for the long term.

Additional Notes.
1. The new Big East could start play in 2013 or 2014, depending on when they let out exiting members.
2. Average travel for both divisions are similar, both contain the Ohio Valley, New England, Florida, Texas and Philadelphia.
3. Both Buffalo and Rutgers are AAU members and are matched against each other.
4. If both Cincinnati and Louisville leave, the conference would still be OK with 12 teams.
5. If Boise State and Air Force joins, they would be set as cross division rivals.
6. If Notre Dame stays, their football team should play 4-6 games against Big East programs. This would help strength of schedule as well as another marketing opportunity.

Big 14 in 2014

News came today that West Virginia University has been accepted into the Big 12 in July 2012. Interesting enough, the long anticipated Missouri's departure to the SEC still has not happened. The word is that the Big 12 is to stay at 10 teams for now. I just don't see that happening. Firstly, how can WVU join in 2012 when the Big East will hold all members to the 27 months notification. Sure WVU will try to renegotiate their exit terms but the Big East can only lose to allow any team to leave before the Big East is ready. Definitely a domino concern is in play as one team leaving early will mean three teams leaving early, which may leave the Big East short of 8 teams necessary to be a NCAA conference. Secondly, why unlikely, Missouri may still stay in the Big 12. Finally, I believe the current TV contract specifies 12 teams and a minimum of 10. Come time to renew and renegotiate the TV contract time returns in 6 years the Big 12 will be certainly negotiate based on the number of teams they have. Numbers provide for both stability and profit.

Thus I believe if Mizzou leaves and West Virginia cannot play in 2012 the Big 12 will need another team for 2012. I also believe that if Mizzou stays the Big 12 will be at 11 and will then consider adding another team to go to 12. Big 12 expansion will not end with West Virginia. Going to 14 however is another matter and in part will depends on what happens with between Missouri leaving and West Virginia playing, i.e. team 11 (with WVU being team 10 to replace Missouri). Team 11 cannot come from the Big East if WVU cannot play before 2014. Brigham Young University remains in play for this reason. Notre Dame is a wish list that will not happen in 2012. If not Brigham Young then it leaves an opportunity for a C-USA team (of which I believe Tulane is the leading candidate over alternatives such as Rice, Southern Mississippi, Central Florida, or Memphis) or a MWC team (Air Force has been ruled out, leaving San Diego State, Colorado State, possibly New Mexico). Of these I think the top two for the Big 12 expansion before 2014, in order, are Brigham Young and Tulane. It is possible that the Big 12 may decide to pick up both to go to 12 rather than just one and go to 11. If invited, unlike BYU, Tulane will jump at the chance.
But when WVU cannot play in 2012 the Big 12 will have to decide whether to take any other teams from the Big East while they still can. The teams to consider then, in order, will be Louisville, Cincinnati, and South Florida.

So lets then look at how the Big 12 with 12 teams might be configured. In a previous post I laid out divisions based on rivalries. I still believe this is the best approach. To review, the major rivalries in the Big 12 (with Missouri as they have not left yet, but without Colorado, Nebraska, or Texas A&M) are:

Kansas & Missouri (Border War since 1891)
Texas & Oklahoma (Red River Rivalry since 1900)
Kansas & Kansas State (Sunflower Showdown since 1902)
Oklahoma & Oklahoma State (Bedlam Series since 1904)
Texas & Kansas State (Chisholm Trail since 1913)
Iowa State & Kansas State (Farmageddon since 1917)
Texas & Texas Tech (Chancellor's Spurs since 1928)
Oklahoma & Missouri (Peace Pipe since 1929)
Baylor & Texas Tech (Texas Farm Bureau Shootout since 1929)
Iowa State & Missouri (Telephone Trophy since 1959)
Texas Christian & Baylor (Great Revival since 1899)

The rivalries in bold will be used as the basis to divide the conference zipper style, with these games representing annual cross division games (an addition 2 cross division games will be rotating, along with the 5-6 in division games). As represented, the first column will represent one division and the second column the other division.

Kansas State & Kansas (Sunflower Showdown since 1902)
Oklahoma & Oklahoma State (Bedlam Series since 1904)
Texas & Texas Tech (Chancellor's Spurs since 1928)
Texas Christian & Baylor (Great Revival since 1899)
Iowa State & Missouri (Telephone Trophy since 1959)

Division A will have Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Christian, and Iowa State. Division A will also preserve the Red River rivalry (Oklahoma & Texas), the Chisholm Trail (Kansas State & Texas) and Farmageddon (Kansas State & Iowa State).
Division B will have Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Baylor, and possibly Missouri. Division B will also preserve the Border War (Kansas & Missouri) and the Texas Farm Bureau Shootout (Texas Tech and Baylor).
One rivalry will not be preserved in this alignment, the Peace Pipe between Oklahoma and Missouri. The Chisholm Trail predates this rivalry and since Missouri may leave I thought it better to preserve the Chisholm Trail over the Peace Pipe rivalry.

With just WVU replacing Missouri there would be no reason to have divisions at 10 teams. But if Missouri stay the Big 12 will take one more, lets say either BYU or Tulane, then I would arrange the following matches:

Kansas State & Kansas
Oklahoma & Oklahoma State
Texas & Texas Tech
Texas Christian & Baylor
Iowa State & Missouri
Brigham Young/Tulane & West Virginia

If Missouri leaves but WVU cannot play till 2014, and the Big 12 takes 1-2 for 2012, and with WVU go to 12 for 2014, then the following could be considered. I am certain the Big 12 will go back to at least 12.

Kansas State & Kansas
Oklahoma & Oklahoma State
Texas & Texas Tech
Texas Christian & Baylor
Iowa State & Tulane (both AAU, both fairly matched in competitiveness)
Brigham Young & West Virginia (both fairly matched in average ranking from 1960-2010 at 42.9 and 40.4, both extreme geographic ends of the Big 12)

Now if the Big 12 decides on more Big East teams than just WVU, then take the match set of Louisville & Cincinnati (the Keg of Nail rivalry). The Big 14 cross division would be zippered as follows:

Kansas State & Kansas
Oklahoma & Oklahoma State
Texas & Texas Tech
Texas Christian & Baylor
Iowa State & Tulane
BYU & West Virginia
Cincinnati & Louisville
A solid conference in football, basketball, market reach, and overall quality. This is my preferred Big 14.

Should BYU not join, then I believe the Big 12 will take Tulane to go to 10 till the Big East teams joins. In addition to Louisville & Cincinnati, the Big 12 should consider South Florida as their average ranking (1960-2010) is 46.3, and will give the Big 12 direct entry and presence in the Florida market for viewers and recruitment. The Big 14 in 2014 thus could be:

Kansas State & Kansas
Oklahoma & Oklahoma State
Texas & Texas Tech
Texas Christian & Baylor
Iowa State & Tulane
South Florida & West Virginia
Cincinnati & Louisville
A pretty damn fine conference as well.

But if there is a chance Missouri stays, this is what the Big 14 in 2014 should look like:
Kansas & Kansas State
Oklahoma & Oklahoma State
Texas & Texas Tech
Texas Christian & Baylor
Iowa State & Tulane
Missouri & West Virginia
Cincinnati & Louisville

College Football Big 12 Realignment & Provisional Membership

No Big East teams will be a replacement for Missouri in the Big 12 because of their 27 months hold with the SEC. Missouri say if they leave they will leave to play elsewhere in 2012, which means the Big 12 will take a team that can start conference play in 2012. Even if Missouri does not leave till 2013, the Big East teams will not be available till 2014. This is where BYU comes in and probably why they are still being pursued. BYU can probably start conference play in 2012 and definitely by 2013 if they choose to join.

If the Big 12 decides to take the Big East teams anyway, which is what I hope the Big 12 does and go to 14 ("Big 14" is owned by the Big 12) then taking WVU, Louisville, and Cincinnati would be preferred as a package rather than just two of the three, as along with Iowa State would allow for future regional play as well as concentration of geography within the B1F footprint. These three teams may not start Big 12 conference play until 2014, 2013 at the earliest. Thus i see an opportunity for a program to demonstrate its commitment to taking it to "Big 14" level. Such a program would have to start this year and demonstrate itself over the next year or two. Think of it as a provisional membership plan?

For programs currently weak in football play but with excellent academics, the program needs to show commitment to improving itself, partly through on field performance, but more so through building athletic infrastructures such as an on campus stadium of sufficient size and other athletic facilities, coaching hires and staffs, and general support from the institution to its athletic program (not just football). It may also be easier for a strong academic program to commit to academic because academic is the true raison d'etre for universities. If mission one is already accomplished, then mission two, brand building will come easier. For most university, brand building is easiest with athletics. If for simplicity rating programs for good academics uses AAU membership, then there would be three available AAU programs outside of AQ conference: Buffalo, Rice, and Tulane. Buffalo is probably too far away, thus leaving Rice and Tulane.

For programs currently strong in football play but weak in academics, it will need to demonstrate a commitment to improving its academic. This means faculty recruitment, grants awards, and quality improvements. Since most programs are likely doing what it can already to improve academics, I do not see these programs as viable provisional members. When you get down to it there is only one program in this category: Boise State. They have an excellent football program but relatively weak in their academic. I do not think Boise State can do much in the next few years.

Then there are programs lacking excellence in academic and football, but are decent in both. To build up both athletic and academic at the same time is a Herculean effort. They would have to be on the cusp, just needing a bit more time and a bit more resources. The only program that springs to mind is Florida International, strong in academic and in a good geography to build their athletic (Florida).

Another consideration is private programs vs public program. In this consideration the private program will have an edge. For a public institution to increase its effort for academic of athletic will require support from the state government and I just do not see this happening. With the current state of the economy, falling tax collection and government deficit, most state governments would be hard press to commit more money to athletic program building. While the state of the economy is poor for private institution as well, their alumni base may be better positioned tax wise to donate, as well as a desire to see their alma mater compete better.

In final consideration, if the Big 14 does consider provisional membership, the following programs have an opportunity and I list them in order: Tulane, Rice, Buffalo, and Florida Atlantic.

Big 12 Old and New by the Numbers

The Big 12 took a huge hit losing Nebraska, Texas A&M, Colorado, and possibly Missouri. To even get close to where it was it needs 14 teams. The lost is felt across the board in football competitiveness, fan base, money, and AAU.

None of the potential Big 12 candidates individually comes close to a Nebraska, Texas A&M, Colorado, or Missouri. They are all mixed bags.

BYU is a good addition if it happens, as BYU is a competitive program in football and strong in academic endowment though not AAU. BYU though can gain viewers in Utah as well as nationally.
Boise State is competitive athletics but weak in academic. There are few viewers in Idaho but they do have a national presence now.
Cincinnati is a solid pick with decent competitiveness, fans and money (more than BYU). They also bring part of the Ohio market.
Colorado State is decent in competitiveness, fans and money. The Colorado market may be primed for a Big 12 presence after the lost of Colorado. There are many Big 12 fans there who are not Colorado U fans.
Louisville is also decent in football competitiveness, fans, though less money than Cincinnati but more than Colorado State. Louisville is also a decent market for the Big 12 to gain.
New Mexico is a weak competitor, few fans, and little money. They are a neighboring state to the Big 12 though with a decent market in Albuquerque.
Southern Mississippi is a strong competitor and has a decent fan base but little money. The market is small and behind Mississippi and Mississippi State. But Mississippi brings the Big 12 that much closer to Florida, a huge market and recruitment ground for players.
Tulane is a weak competitor, small fan base, but good endowment and AAU. Tulane is also in New Orleans a very good market and destination. The Big 12 can afford a few weak competitor who are good academics and bring new market to the league. The Big 12 already has plenty of competitive programs on the field and may need to replenish its AAU memberships.
West Virginia is a strong competitor, large fan base, and decent money but not a strong academic nor a large market. The market is decent if you include Pittsburgh and Northern Virginia though.
SMU and Houston were not included in the analysis because there are already 4 Texas teams and neither would bring new market share.

Overall I would rate the contenders in the following order.
1. BYU
2. WVU
3. Cincinnati
4. Louisville
5. Tulane
6. Boise State
7. Southern Mississippi
8. Colorado State
9. New Mexico

BYU and WVU would become matched rivals for cross division annual play. Same with Cincinnati and Louisville (Keg of Nails since 1929). If Tulane replaces Missouri, then Tulane would be matched with Iowa State. All seems like good matches to me.

Big 12 Should Look East

News today is that the Big East plans to go to 12 football teams. Their options are limited however with candidates like Air Force, Army, Navy, Temple, East Carolina, Central Florida, Houston and SMU. None of the teams mentioned are from Automatic Qualifying conferences, but teams mentioned (with the omission of Boise State and BYU) are among the best of the rest. If the Big 12 rest at 10, then the opportunity to take teams from the Big East, or these "best of the rest" will be severely limited.

When the Big 12 expands back up to 12, and possibly 14 (given the Big 12 currently owns the copy rights to Big 14), the expansions should consider new markets for both football as well as basketball, major metropolitan areas, and academics. While final decisions cannot come until Missouri decides whether to leave to the SEC or not, the Big 12 expanding to at least 12 now might entice Missouri to stay. Given all these considerations, the Big 12 should move now rather than later.

Which way to expand? If the Big 12 looks to improve both its football and basketball footprints, then it should look to what conference currently are strong in football and basketball. This means Big 10 and SEC for football and ACC and Big East for basketball. All these states are east of the current Big 12 footprint, not west. All these states also have higher population densities than the states west of the Big 12. While geographic continuity should be considered, there are options eastward the Big 12 should consider.

Firstly, I favor the Big 12 inviting at least Louisville and Cincinnati now. Both have reasonably competitive athletics, both have reasonable academics, and both are in complementary population markets. Both straddle the Big 10 and SEC footprints, allowing the Big 12 higher visibility in Kentucky, Ohio, and Indiana. West Virginia should also be considered if Missouri leaves and the SEC does not pick up West Virginia though this is mostly a football gain only. It is important to remember that the Big East programs needs to give 27 months notice, and may not be available for Big 12 conference play until the 2014 season.

Secondly, the Big 12 should consider penetrating the SEC territory by considering Tulane and Southern Mississippi. Tulane has strong academics and appears interested in strengthening its athletics. Tulane is AAU to replace the AAU that are lost (Colorado, TA&M, Missouri, and "Nebraska"). Southern Mississippi is strong in football, a rival for Tulane, and moves the Big 12 a bit closer to Florida, a major recruiting field and leaves option for addition of Florida teams in the future.

I think the Big 12 will lose out if it does not move ahead of the Big East. BYU and Boise State can both wait and be added later.

Big 12 Reorganization.

With the Big 12 inviting TCU and TCU accepting membership, it looks like the Big 12 has at least stabilized some (pending Missouri's decision, which I hope and expect to remain with the Big 12). Additional candidates are likely to go to 12 if not 14. I think this would be a good time to look at the organization for division formation. Previously with 12 teams, it was a North vs South with the line drawn between Kansas and Oklahoma. This geography would be hard to re-establish, and an East-West split would also constrain current rivalries as well as future additions. Witness the SEC with 13 teams, 7 West and 6 East. Either the SEC will have to redraw its division if it adds Missouri, or be constrained to take a team to the East (West Virginia? Virginia Tech? Miami? A North Carolina team?). And then what would have to change when it feels 16 teams is needed? Redrawing division lines while preserving traditional rivalries will be difficult for any conference. Thus the Big 12 should give serious consideration now, before it has divisions, as to how the divisions should be drawn to accommodate future growth.

While conference realignment appears largely about money, the best thing about college sports is rivalries and these must be preserved in any division alignments. Thus if rivalries are to be preserved, why not build divisions around rivalries? Currently in the Big 12 there are the following rivalries, from oldest to youngest (rivalries with Texas A&M not included).
Kansas & Missouri (Border War since 1891)
Texas & Oklahoma (Red River Rivalry since 1900)
Kansas & Kansas State (Sunflower Showdown since 1902)
Oklahoma & Oklahoma State (Bedlam Series since 1904)
Texas & Kansas State (Chisholm Trail since 1913)
Iowa State & Kansas State (Farmageddon since 1917)
Texas & Texas Tech (Chancellor's Spurs since 1928)
Oklahoma & Missouri (Peace Pipe since 1929)
Baylor & Texas Tech (Texas Farm Bureau Shootout since 1929)
Iowa State & Missouri (Telephone Trophy since 1959).

As can seen in the above, keeping all the rivalries within one division will not be practical. There are two kinds of rivalries, intra-state and inter-states. Since there are more inter-state rivalries, and rivalries should be annual games, it makes more sense to build divisions based on inter state rivalries and keeping intra state state rivalries as an annual inter-division game. With this format the following intra-state rivalries will split the conference into two.
Oklahoma & Oklahoma State
Kansas & Kansas State
Texas & Texas Tech

Around this we will add inter-state rivals, keeping interstate rivals in the same division. In the South we have Oklahoma & Texas (so Oklahoma and Texas should be in the same division). In the North we have Kansas & Missouri and Missouri & Oklahoma (so these 3 teams should be in the same division). The result is Division A: Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Texas with Division B: Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech. Given that both Iowa State and Missouri do not have in state and in conference rivals, and they are rivals as well, the two will be matched as cross division rivals. Now Division B has Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech. There remains two teams for placement, Texas Christian and Baylor. Texas Christian has an 106 games rivalry with Baylor and a 51 games rivalry with Texas Tech. Baylor has a 67 games rivalry with Texas Tech. Thus Texas Christian and Baylor should be in opposite divisions, with Baylor in the same division as Texas Tech.
Thus we end with:
Division A: Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Christian.
Division B: Baylor, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech.

The balance of power appears to favor Division A (with current upper powers Oklahoma and Texas and mid powers Missouri and Texas Christian) over Division B (with current upper power Oklahoma State and mid powers Kansas State and possibly Texas Tech). But power rankings will change from season to season. Besides, with cross division rivalries, all the strong teams from one division will play against the other division teams as well. With expansion to 12 or 14, addressing power imbalance can occur.

Each year each team should play its cross division rival to open conference play. Playing your cross division rival first because should a set of cross division rivals end up being division champions, their rematch in the division championship would come after all conference plays have occurred. It would also be a great way to start conference play.
Baylor opens with Texas Christian.
Iowa State opens with Missouri.
Kansas opens with Kansas State.
Kansas State opens with Kansas.
Missouri opens with Iowa State.
Oklahoma opens with Oklahoma State.
Oklahoma State opens with Oklahoma.
Texas opens with Texas Tech.
Texas Christian opens with Baylor.
Texas Tech opens with Texas.

Another benefit to divisions based on rival is that travel cost for each team also averages out more evenly. In the old Big 12 division the southern teams had a shorter distance to travel (Oklahoma and Texas) while the northern teams had longer travel distance (Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska). In a division of rivals both divisions have Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas with one also has Iowa while the other Missouri. I also see this as enhancing the smaller state's presence within more populous Texas for exposure, fan building, and recruitment.

With a conference built on rivalries, any additions to the Big 12 should thus be recruited as rivals set. For instance Louisville + Cincinnati (or West Virginia), BYU + Boise State (or West Virginia), Tulane + Southern Mississippi, etc. The rivals division is practical for 12 or 14 teams arrangement. It will need a bit of tweaking for 16 teams though.

Finally, each conference teams should try to cultivate annual extra-conference rivalries. For instance Iowa State and Iowa, Texas and Texas A&M, Texas Christian and Southern Methodist, and Texas Tech and New Mexico. Of the expansion candidates, it would be BYU v Utah (or Boise State), Louisville vs Kentucky, WVU vs Pittsburgh, and Tulane vs LSU for instance. These inter-conference games would highlight the conferences against each other at the beginning of the season, whereas bowl games will highlight them at the end.

Big 12 Expansion Candidates

The Big 12 will expand this season, taking in my opinion 3-6 teams (depending on whether Missouri leaves or not) and will soon have 12+ members again. This means an 8-9 games conference schedule. Any expansion candidates must consider this schedule, leaving only 2-3 non conference games available. Some of these non-conference games must include games against national and regional rivals. Regional rivals are particularly important to establish a regional presence to build both a fan base and capture media market. Local fans are the most important as they will attend games, buy team related products. A large local fans base will also force more media attention and service.

The leading candidate so far is BYU. BYU has the largest sporting presence in Utah as well as a national presence. Their non conference games would include Boise State, Utah, and possibly one other. These regional non-conference games will certainly help BYU to deliver Utah.

If the Big 12 wants geographical continuity with BYU as well as regain the Colorado market, it must consider a Colorado program. Colorado left the Big 12 for the Pac 12 will not be coming back. That leaves the Air Force Academy or Colorado State. The available number of non-conference games almost certainly rule out Air Force Academy. Air Force will want to play Army and Navy each year. Air Force has also been a frequent competitor of Notre Dame. For Air Force to grab the Colorado market, it must also play against instate rivals Colorado and Colorado State. This is particularly true for Air Force because despite being in Colorado, it neither recruits nor serves Colorado. Both Colorado and Colorado State thus must be a part of the non-conference schedule. Playing both of these Colorado teams along with Army and Navy just is not practical. On the other hand Colorado State non-conference schedule would include the biggest sporting event in Colorado when it plays against the University of Colorado. It would also highlight a Big 12 vs Pac 12 rivalry (similar to a Iowa State vs Iowa game). Colorado State other rivalry with Wyoming would also help deliver the Colorado market. My analysis would favor Colorado State rather than Air Force for the Colorado market.

Another populous state with potential for cross conference rivalry is Louisiana. Here I think Tulane is our best option for the Big 12. Tulane is an AAU member. Tulane is a well established institution in New Orleans and a historical rival to LSU. True Tulane is not very competitive on the field but teams get better by playing against good teams regularly (which the current even shrunken Big 12 has plenty of) and by investing in its athletic program financially. Being a part of an Automatic Qualifying conference will bring more experience and money to Tulane. Given that Tulane is fairly well established in academics, there would be less of an issue for Tulane to put more money into Athletics. Tulane's non-conference rivalries with LSU and Southern Mississippi would certainly help gain viewers in the southern Gulf coast region. The alternative program to Tulane in Louisiana is Louisiana Tech. However, Louisiana Tech is not located in a major metropolitan area, not strong in academic, and doesn't have as much of a presence as Tulane. Tulane was recently mentioned as a potential candidate and they should be considered.

New Mexico might be a consideration but this should be a last resort to fill a gap and round out conference membership to an even number rather than a primary or even secondary target for expansion. There are two teams in New Mexico, University of New Mexico and New Mexico State. Neither are academically outstanding and both have equivalent metropolitan area (Albuquerque and Las Cruces + El Paso). Albuquerque might be a reasonable consideration. A better choice for the Las Cruces + El Paso market would be UTEP rather than New Mexico State. New Mexico could have an outside shot at being considered for the Big 12.

UTEP really doesn't add much to the Big 12 that it doesn't already own in Texas. The top 3 teams in Texas are UT, TA&M, and TTU. TA&M is now lost to the SEC. TCU might be a consideration in that it is the only remaining Texas team with a national recognition. However, SMU isn't so far behind and nor is Houston. Perhaps the best reason to take TCU is to deny the Big East a Texas presence. Of the remaining Big 12 states none have any in state options of note. Of the surrounding states there really no viable options either beyond those mentioned above(Colorado State, Tulane, and New Mexico), whether it be Arkansas, Arizona, the Dakotas or Wyoming.

There is the option of raiding the Big East by taking Louisville, Cincinnati, and even West Virginia. I seriously doubt the Big East will fold any time soon. In addition, if Missouri leaves, these 3 Big East programs will be even less attractive. There won't be geographical continuity. Missouri in this sense is the Big 12's gateway east and these 3 school's gateway west.

Looking West there remains Boise State. Though a very competitive football program, unfortunately Boise State doesn't offer much else, whether it be academic, geographical proximity, or regional media market. However, like New Mexico, Boise State will be considered as a filler team.

In summary, my assessment of expansion candidates for the Big 12 are:
Tier 1: BYU (to replace TA&M)
Tier 2: Louisville, Cincinnati, WVU, (only if Missouri stays, and even so, unlikely)
Tier 3: TCU, Colorado State, and Tulane
Tier 4: Boise State, New Mexico
I can see the Big 12 going to 14 for both stability (should another team leaves) as well as parity with the ACC and the SEC. I do not see the Big 12 going to 16 because there isn't a reason to yet, and because when the time come, a 14 teams big 12 will be in a stronger position to take better candidates than it can now. My 14 are: all the current Big 12 (including Missouri), BYU, TCU, Colorado State, Tulane, and Louisville.