FBS Program Proposed Value, Validated

In a previous post I sought to analyze the available FBS teams value for realignment considerations.  I used two resources. Firstly is mcubed which take a team's football record from 1960 through 2012 analyzed and ranked; lower is thus better. This gives me an understanding how competitive a team is, along with its competitive reputation. Second is the team's popularity and I use the actual averaged stadium attendance for 2012, with a percentage change from 2011. I then took the attendance figure divided by the mcubed rank to get one number, and this time the bigger the figure the higher the value, at least as by my method.

I will now attempt to validate this method of analysis and valuation through internal comparison of the value of the Big XII teams with each other, then with a WSJ estimation of the major FBS teams dollar worth. So here is the Big 12 ranked.

• Program: attendance / mcubed = value 

1. Texas: 100,884 / 22.4 = 4,503
2. Oklahoma: 85,243 21.7 = 3,928
3. West Virginia: 55,916 / 40 = 1397
4. Texas Tech: 57,209 / 48.4 = 1,182
5. Oklahoma St: 56,557 / 51.6 = 1,096
6. Iowa St: 55,274 / 68.7 = 804
7. Kansas St: 50,278 / 67.1 = 749
8. TCU: 46,047 / 63.7 = 722
9. Kansas: 41,329 / 63 = 656
10. Baylor: 41,194 / 63.2 = 651

• Average: 58,993.1 / 50.98 = 1157

The top two programs Texas and Oklahoma appears correct. West Virginia, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State are also correctly placed in the top half of the conference. West Virginia rank may be higher because their competitiveness is based largely against Big East programs, typically seen and less competitive than the Big XII. But Kansas State appears inappropriately low bunched in the bottom half of the conference. Lets look at the WSJ worth ranking.

• Program: Value (in million $)

1. Texas: 761.7
2. Oklahoma: 454.7
3. Texas Tech: 211
4. Oklahoma State: 209.1
5. Kansas State: 207.1
6. West Virginia: 159.4
7. Iowa State: 140.3
8. Kansas: 103.4
9. Texas Christian: 76.6
10. Baylor: 71.3

So again the top 2 teams are similar to my valuation calculation, as is the bottom Baylor. Texas Tech and Oklahoma State are also very close together. Kansas State rates higher per the WSJ than West Virginia did, likely because West Virginia only just join from the Big East, a lower value conference. While not directly correlative, the analyzed value appears approximately reasonable. Lets look at the programs under consideration again, and compare them against the Big XII average.

• Program: attendance / mcubed = value (value in millions)

1. Florida State: 75,601 / 27.6 = 2,739 ($159)
2. Clemson: 79,429 / 44.3 = 1,792 ($201.8)
3. BYU: 61,161 / 42.6 = 1,435 ($136.1)
4. Miami: 47,719 / 33.8 = 1,411 ($157.7)

• Big XII Average: 58,993.1 / 50.98 = 1157

1. South Florida: 44,130 / 50.1 = 880 ($101.2)
2. Pittsburgh: 41494 / 48.5 = 855 ($59.6)
3. Louisville: 49,991 / 63.4 = 788 ($75.4)
4. Syracuse: 37,953 / 49.5 = 766 ($91.4)
5. Air Force: 32,015 / 57.1 = 560 (?)
6. Connecticut: 34,672 / 71 = 488 ($101.8)
7. Navy: 32,363 / 68.9 = 469 (?)
8. Cincinnati: 29,138 / 66.4 = 438 ($48.9)

Again Florida State and Clemson show themselves to be top of the list and well above the Big XII average. BYU and Miami also show themselves to be above the Big XII average. The Big XII should be cautious in taking program below Big XII average. Likely the Big XII will only take lower value program to go to 12 and I continue to believe South Florida is the best candidate of the rest. The value of Air Force and Navy remain unknown economically, but their perceived value appear high.