Big 12 Expansion Candidates 2

In a previous post I analyzed potential candidates for Big XII expansion using stadium attendance and mcubed program ranking. But since mcubed ranking was program lifetime ranking, it might be more pertinent to look at the programs more recent record. So I went to Football Outsider and average their F/+ rating (higher is better) for the year 2005-2012. This a computed team performance rating and does not take anything else into account other than on field performance.

For reference I will restate the Big XII mcubed rating (lower is better), and the potential candidates.

• Baylor = 63.2
• Iowa St = 68.7
• Kansas = 63
• Kansas St  = 67.1
• Oklahoma = 21.7
• Oklahoma St = 51.6
• TCU = 63.7
• Texas = 22.4
• Texas Tech = 48.4
• West Virginia = 40
• Big XII average = 50.98

• Expansion Candidates

1. Florida State = 27.6
2. Miami = 33.8
3. BYU = 42.6
4. Clemson = 44.3
5. Virginia Tech = 46.1
6. Pittsburgh = 48.5
7. Syracuse = 49.5
8. South Florida = 50.1
9. Big XII average = 50.98
10. NC State = 52.8
11. Air Force = 57.1
12. Louisville = 63.4
13. Cincinnati = 66.4
14. Navy = 68.9
15. Connecticut = 71
16. Northern Illinois = 78.5

Now lets look at F/+ rating.

• Baylor = -2.3
• Iowa St = -5.4
• Kansas = -4.3
• Kansas St = 2.8
• Oklahoma = 21.2
• Oklahoma St = 12.1
• TCU = 17.9
• Texas = 18.1
• Texas Tech = 7.6
• West Virginia = 14.6
• Big XII average = 8.23

Once again the expansion candidates

1. Virginia Tech = 18
2. Florida State = 14.3
3. Clemson = 13.6
4. BYU = 10.2
5. Miami = 8.9
6. Big XII average = 8.23
7. Pittsburgh = 7.8
8. Cincinnati = 7
9. Louisville = 6.3
10. South Florida = 5.4
11. Connecticut = 1.9
12. NC State = 1
13. Northern Illinois = -0.7
14. Navy = -1.8
15. Air Force = -3
16. Syracuse = -5.7

So looking at competitiveness alone, 5 teams are above the Big XII average: BYU, Clemson, FSU, Miami and Virginia Tech. Of these I believe Virginia Tech is least likely, being wedded to UVA and likely the ACC. Except for BYU, Clemson, FSU and Miami are all in the ACC as well and with a exit penalty of $50 millions, they may not be able to leave. It is estimated that the ACC pays each team $24.4 millions while the Big XII pays $26.2 millions (source). As is the difference is not enough, coupled with the fact that each team in the Big XII will likely make less with more members. That leaves BYU. So if somehow the ACC teams are available, then it might make sense for the Big XII to go to 14 with BYU, Clemson, FSU, and Miami. Wow what a conference that will be, but it seems unlikely.

The following six programs are below the Big XII on both lists: Air Force, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Navy, and Northern Illinois and are thus unlikely candidates for Big XII expansion. Programs that are on either list are Pittsburgh, South Florida, and Syracuse. If the Big XII expands to 12, then BYU will be the 11th and a 12th will come from this group. Of these three, when ranked by the program's worth:

1. BYU = $136.1 millions
2. USF = $101.2 millions
3. Syracuse = $91.4 millions
4. Pittsburgh = $59.6 millions

When ranked by 2012 stadium attendance:

1. BYU = 61,161 (+1%)
2. USF = 44,130 (-1%)
3. Pittsburgh = 41,494 (-10%)
4. Syracuse = 37,953 (-6%)

When ranked by NYT fan base:

1. Pittsburgh = 831,496
2. Syracuse = 769,624
3. BYU = 709,864
4. USF = 520,627

When ranked by states with population changes (standardized to gains or losses of congressional seats) as a metric for the media market potential: 

1. USF (Florida) = +2 (also one of the top three states for football recruits)
2. BYU (Utah) = +1
3. Pittsburgh (Pennsylvania) = -1
4. Syracuse (New York) = -2

By most metrics, but not all, the best available teams outside of the ACC are BYU and USF.