Conferences, Demographics, and Realignment

I want to look at the current demographics of the conferences and thus make some projection about their movement forward into the future, including realignments. Keep in mind that conferences are not the same as teams and on field performances, conferences are about (academic) institutions who seek to grow bigger, stronger, and more prosperous. Prosperity is key here so that yes, it is about money. Business of College Sport is an excellent source for more information on this topic. Ultimately institutions grow by having more members. They best do this by providing academic quality to attract students. But in any business, there has to be some marketing and broadcasted games are a good way of raising brand awareness in millions of home for several hours at a time. Sports however isn't just about raising brand awareness but also about maintaining brand awareness with graduates, linking them back to the four (or is it five now?) years spent on campus. This the circle is closed when you look at the goals of institutional growth, to attract applicants, to raise student enrollment, and to maintain alumni support. I understand that there is substantial mobility of people in the United States but for the most part, only a few institutions are truly national (or international) brands. Most institutions are regional at best and many are really just state wide brand in practical terms. By practical terms I mean most students are from instate (for the tuition discount) and most alumni remain in state. A good alumni base is important for their continued financial support, and nearby alumni are a valuable asset. Nearby alumni are more likely to attend the games, remain involved, and thus more likely to contribute to the institution financially. Only a few institutions have access to multimillion dollars donors so these should not be counted on for growth. For conferences, if their member institutions grow, so will the conference.

My hypothesis is that for regional (all non national or international institution) institutions, their potential for growth is higher when the institution is based in a growing state. Growth is driven best by economic, but population growth is a reasonable surrogate as people will move for better economic options. To compare one state's population against another, I will simply use the 2010 census and the resulting changes to the state's congressional seats. From the WSJ:

• States Losing Seats

1. New York: -2
2. Ohio: -2
3. Illinois: -1
4. Iowa: -1
5. Louisiana : -1
6. Massachusetts: -1
7. Michigan: -1
8. Missouri: -1
9. New Jersey: -1
10. Pennsylvania: -1

• States Gaining Seats

1. Texas: 4
2. Florida: 2
3. Arizona: 1
4. Georgia: 1
5. Nevada: 1
6. South Carolina: 1
7. Utah: 1
8. Washington:1

Now lets look at the individual conferences and their net change of congressional seats (CS). Since we are looking at population changes as a marker for potential growth, a state can impact more than one conferences. This is a qualitative measure rather than a quantitative measure though numbers are being used. Starting first with the Major Five then the Minor Five.

• ACC: +1 (for Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Pennsylvania and New York)
• B1G: -7 (for Ohio, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania)
• Big XII: +4 (for Texas)
• Pac12: +3 (for Arizona, Utah, and Washington)
• SEC: +6 (for Texas, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Louisiana and Missouri)
• Big East: +2 (for Texas, Florida, Ohio, Louisiana, and Pennsylvania)
• CUSA: +5 (for Texas, Florida and Louisiana)
• MAC: -6 (for New York, Ohio, Illinois, Michigan)
• MWC: +2 (for Nevada and Utah)
• Sun Belt: +4 (for Texas, Georgia and Louisiana)

Since I am proposing to use population growth as a potentiator for growth, I would be remiss not to consider the current state of the conference. For this I propose to use stability; after all nothing potentiate growth more than current stability. For stability I will just look at whether a conference has lost any members in the last 5 years. While some might argue that grants of rights (GoR) enhances stability and I agree, it doesn't factually provide stability as it has not been tested legally.

The ACC.  The ACC is unstable for having lost Maryland recently to the B1G. The ACC is also a risk per Internet rumors (yes I know that is the worse kind) of possibly losing Clemson, FSU, Georgia Tech, Miami, Duke, NC State, UNC, UVA, and VTech. While I remain skeptical that any of these teams will leave, I guess it can happen still. And if the 4 North Carolina schools stay, I think UVA and VTech will as well and thus the conference will survive. However, losing the southern schools like FSU, Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Miami will mean losing all four states with growing population, leaving ACC at a net loss of -3 CS. Interesting enough, at least by demographic shift, the addition of Pittsburgh and Syracuse does not help the ACC with the future growth regardless of the quality of the two programs added.  As is, at +1 CS the ACC is holding. But should the ACC lose both FSU and Miami, then the ACC should consider another Florida team such as USF. UConn and Cincinnati are unlikely to add much long term growth potential.

The B1G. The B1G is rock stable, having lost none and gained 3 (Maryland, Nebraska, and New Jersey). However, the future demographic shift for the B1G states are abysmal with a conference net of -7 (-6 without the recent addition of Rutger). The mainstay programs of the B1G are Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State are all states losing CS. I believe for the near future the B1G will remain stable because all members are AAU (except Nebraska) but in the long term demographic will trump academic. For the B1G to expand by geographic continuity, the situation will not change much as New York is a loser of CS, the North East and the MidAtlantic (Virginia and North Carolina) and Kansas are neutral in terms of CS growth. I guess this is why the B1G is looking at Georgia Tech.

The Big XII. The Big XII is unstable because it has lost four members (Colorado, Missouri, Nebraska, and Texas A&M). The Big XII demographic potential for growth is focused on one state: Texas. True the Big XII also has no states losing population. The reliance on Texas, and indirectly UT, may potentiate instability rather than enhances it.  Should any of the Southern ACC teams become available for membership, the Big XII should jump at the chance. I would actually not suggest waiting but go out and actively recruit. I would also consider teams in the nearby Mountain states of Utah, Arizona and Nevada.

The Pac 12. The Pac 12 is a stable conference having lost no members and having gained two (Colorado and Utah). The Pac 12 also has 3 states gaining CS: Arizona, Utah and Washington and no states losing CS. The Pac 12 should be expected to continue for a while, but is limited only by limited expansion options. Only Texas and Nevada are nearby states with growing CS. No wonder it would have been a coup accompli had the Pac 12 been able to take OU, OSU, TTU and UT.

The SEC. The SEC is a stable conference having lost no members and having gained two (Missouri and Texas A&M). Texas A&M was a huge gain, allowing the SEC a regular presence in Texas (+4 CS). The SEC has four states gaining CS and two states losing CS. One of the states losing CS is Louisiana and this maybe an aberration as a result of depopulating New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. The other is Missouri, which is likely an addition only to balance out Texas A&M. The SEC is  on solid footing having a major presence in both Texas and Florida, not just the top two growth states but also the top 2 of three states for college football recruits.

Of the five major conferences I would rank the top two as the SEC and the Pac12. The B1G looks good now but have limited long term growth potential. The weakest two conferences are the ACC and the Big XII. They both likely know this and thus discussion for an alliance. I am skeptical an alliance would be a durable solution. Perhaps a full merger might work but that will never happen. Since the ACC is not looking to poach any programs from the Big XII whereas the Big XII is clearly interested in taking from the ACC, the Big XII through action alone may have a better future than the ACC.

I believe demographic shifts will affect the major five more than the minor five because of the current disparity in finances. Institutions in the minor five will always jump to the major five if given the opportunity to do so. Whether the major five will consider demographic shift is less certain to me but perhaps their should. A substantial amount of conference income come from TV broadcast rights with contract running for 10+ years, moving past the next census date of 2020.  Thus the money gains today will certainly trump that of future growth potential from population gains. Another consideration is that stability may not mean the same as with the major five conferences. If a conference has no team of value to the major conferences, then it may appear stable but stability would not mean value or potential for growth.

The Big East. Clearly an unstable conference having lost five teams to the majors (Louisville, Pittsburgh, Rutger, Syracuse, and West Virginia). The teams the Big East has sought to replenish and actually expand its membership include teams from Texas and Florida. In both states the Big East has position themselves with two programs each and this can only add synergy. If the Big East can hold as is I believe it has a reasonable future for growth. Current Big East teams at risk for jumping ship are USF, UConn and Cincinnati. Of these I would value USF the highest.

The CUSA. Another unstable conference having lost half its membership with six teams to the Big East (East Carolina, Central Florida, Houston, Memphis, SMU, and Tulane). Clearly the CUSA value maintaining a presence in Florida (FAU and FIU) as well as Texas (North Texas and UT San Antonio). The FCS addition of Old Dominion (VA) and UNC Charlotte (North Carolina) are population growth neutral. Louisiana (Louisiana Tech) will likely gain a CS in the next census. Like the Big East if the CUSA can hold and maintain competitive play, it might be pretty good.

The MAC. The MAC is probably unstable. Temple was lost to the Big East before becoming full member but the rest of the conference may not be attractive to the other conferences. Like the B1G the MAC has horrible demographic with a net of -6 CS. The MAC has a grim future despite having busted the BCS this past year. Unlike the B1G that can compensate for demographic decline by recruiting out of state by academic and reputation, the MAC cannot.

The MWC. Of the minor conferences, only the MWC has lost no members despite having members coveted by other conferences (Boise State and San Diego State). And gains in membership will allow the MWC to stage a conference championship for the first time. The MWC also have very good demographic with no states losing CS and two states gaining (Nevada and Utah). If the MWC can hold long enough to maintain conference unity and stave off any expansion from the Pac 12 or the Big XII, the future could make it the best of the minor and if consistent, leverage itself as a future major conference.

The Sun Belt. Another unstable minor conference having lost four teams to the CUSA. These losses have place them outside Florida but still maintaining a presence in Texas. Taking Georgia State help some but Georgia State is currently an FCS program. The Sun Belt should look to another Florida team. Of note all four Sun Belt bowl teams have remained with the Sun Belt.

Of the Minor Five conferences the MWC has the clear lead, closely followed by the Big East and CUSA. Next I believe comes the Sun Belt. The MAC I would place at the bottom of all conferences for future growth.

Big 12 Expansion Candidates 2

In a previous post I analyzed potential candidates for Big XII expansion using stadium attendance and mcubed program ranking. But since mcubed ranking was program lifetime ranking, it might be more pertinent to look at the programs more recent record. So I went to Football Outsider and average their F/+ rating (higher is better) for the year 2005-2012. This a computed team performance rating and does not take anything else into account other than on field performance.

For reference I will restate the Big XII mcubed rating (lower is better), and the potential candidates.

• Baylor = 63.2
• Iowa St = 68.7
• Kansas = 63
• Kansas St  = 67.1
• Oklahoma = 21.7
• Oklahoma St = 51.6
• TCU = 63.7
• Texas = 22.4
• Texas Tech = 48.4
• West Virginia = 40
• Big XII average = 50.98

• Expansion Candidates

1. Florida State = 27.6
2. Miami = 33.8
3. BYU = 42.6
4. Clemson = 44.3
5. Virginia Tech = 46.1
6. Pittsburgh = 48.5
7. Syracuse = 49.5
8. South Florida = 50.1
9. Big XII average = 50.98
10. NC State = 52.8
11. Air Force = 57.1
12. Louisville = 63.4
13. Cincinnati = 66.4
14. Navy = 68.9
15. Connecticut = 71
16. Northern Illinois = 78.5

Now lets look at F/+ rating.

• Baylor = -2.3
• Iowa St = -5.4
• Kansas = -4.3
• Kansas St = 2.8
• Oklahoma = 21.2
• Oklahoma St = 12.1
• TCU = 17.9
• Texas = 18.1
• Texas Tech = 7.6
• West Virginia = 14.6
• Big XII average = 8.23

Once again the expansion candidates

1. Virginia Tech = 18
2. Florida State = 14.3
3. Clemson = 13.6
4. BYU = 10.2
5. Miami = 8.9
6. Big XII average = 8.23
7. Pittsburgh = 7.8
8. Cincinnati = 7
9. Louisville = 6.3
10. South Florida = 5.4
11. Connecticut = 1.9
12. NC State = 1
13. Northern Illinois = -0.7
14. Navy = -1.8
15. Air Force = -3
16. Syracuse = -5.7

So looking at competitiveness alone, 5 teams are above the Big XII average: BYU, Clemson, FSU, Miami and Virginia Tech. Of these I believe Virginia Tech is least likely, being wedded to UVA and likely the ACC. Except for BYU, Clemson, FSU and Miami are all in the ACC as well and with a exit penalty of $50 millions, they may not be able to leave. It is estimated that the ACC pays each team $24.4 millions while the Big XII pays $26.2 millions (source). As is the difference is not enough, coupled with the fact that each team in the Big XII will likely make less with more members. That leaves BYU. So if somehow the ACC teams are available, then it might make sense for the Big XII to go to 14 with BYU, Clemson, FSU, and Miami. Wow what a conference that will be, but it seems unlikely.

The following six programs are below the Big XII on both lists: Air Force, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Navy, and Northern Illinois and are thus unlikely candidates for Big XII expansion. Programs that are on either list are Pittsburgh, South Florida, and Syracuse. If the Big XII expands to 12, then BYU will be the 11th and a 12th will come from this group. Of these three, when ranked by the program's worth:

1. BYU = $136.1 millions
2. USF = $101.2 millions
3. Syracuse = $91.4 millions
4. Pittsburgh = $59.6 millions

When ranked by 2012 stadium attendance:

1. BYU = 61,161 (+1%)
2. USF = 44,130 (-1%)
3. Pittsburgh = 41,494 (-10%)
4. Syracuse = 37,953 (-6%)

When ranked by NYT fan base:

1. Pittsburgh = 831,496
2. Syracuse = 769,624
3. BYU = 709,864
4. USF = 520,627

When ranked by states with population changes (standardized to gains or losses of congressional seats) as a metric for the media market potential: 

1. USF (Florida) = +2 (also one of the top three states for football recruits)
2. BYU (Utah) = +1
3. Pittsburgh (Pennsylvania) = -1
4. Syracuse (New York) = -2

By most metrics, but not all, the best available teams outside of the ACC are BYU and USF.

FBS Conferences Realignment Options Analyzed

There is an order to realignment picks, the major five (ACC, B1G, Big XII, Pac 12, SEC) picks before the minor conferences (Big East, CUSA, MAC, MWC, and Sun Belt). The Big East has been relegated  to minor status. Of the major five, the B1G, the Pac 12, and the SEC are the top three. These top three have very defined geography and will likely stay geographically based. Of these the Pac 12 have very limited options and at this point, they are not likely to expand. The expansion candidates for both the B1G and the SEC expansion candidates all reside in the ACC. The B1G candidates are Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia Tech. The SEC candidates are Virginia Tech and North Carolina State. My sense remains that the two Virginia schools and all four North Carolina schools will remain in the ACC. If this is true, then there will be no expansion for the B1G or the SEC in the near future. Thus of the major conferences, expansion will depend on the ACC and the Big XII.

The ACC just lost one (Maryland) while taking three (Louisville, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse) to go to 14. The Big XII has recently lost 4 (Colorado, Missouri, Nebraska and Texas A&M) while taking only two (Texas Christian and West Virginia). Despite being smaller than before, the media grants of rights contract agreement appear to make the Big XII more stable than the ACC. I believe the ACC is unlikely to expand further at this point, but if they do Cincinnati and Connecticut are the likely options. The ACC is not in the position to take from the Big XII.

Whether the Big XII expands will depend on whether a conference championship game will offset the cost of the additional members, whether the BCS 4+1 format for 2014 will benefits conferences with the championship more, and finally how easy or how hard Maryland's exit from the ACC's with the $50 million charge will be. However, unlike the ACC, the Big XII should they expand, could take from the ACC but if so, it should happen sooner rather than later. Allow me to explain. If Maryland's exit is arduous, thus making it difficult for the Big XII to take from the ACC, then they may want to have the option to take Louisville, Pittsburgh and Syracuse before they become full ACC members. If Maryland's exit is easy, the ACC will likely take steps to make exit more arduous, such as a media grants of rights like the B1G, Pac 12 and the Big XII have and thus the window to take from the ACC may close fairly quickly. We should know this year whether the Big 12 will expand or not and if they do, a cascade of reaction will follows.

To analyze the available teams, I used two resources. Firstly is mcubed which take a team's football record from 1960 through 2012 analyzed and ranked; lower is thus better. This gives me an understanding how competitive a team is, along with its competitive reputation. Second is the team's popularity and I use the actual averaged stadium attendance for 2012, with a percentage change from 2011. I then took the attendance figure divided by the mcubed rank to get one number, and this time the bigger the figure the higher the value, at least as by my method.

For the Big XII candidate I have assumed the Virginia and North Carolina ACC schools are not available. Thus the candidates are, in order;

• Program: attendance / mcubed = value (trend from 2011 - 2012)

1. Florida State: 75,601 / 27.6 = 2,739 (-)
2. Clemson: 79,429 / 44.3 = 1,792 (+)
3. BYU: 61,161 / 42.6 = 1,435 (+)
4. Miami: 47,719 / 33.8 = 1,411 (+)
5. South Florida: 44,130 / 50.1 = 880 (-)
6. Pittsburgh: 41494 / 48.5 = 855 (-)
7. Louisville: 49,991 / 63.4 = 788 (+)
8. Syracuse: 37,953 / 49.5 = 766 (-)
9. Air Force: 32,015 / 57.1 = 560 (-)
10. Connecticut: 34,672 / 71 = 488 (-)
11. Navy: 32,363 / 68.9 = 469 (-)
12. Cincinnati: 29,138 / 66.4 = 438 (-)

I just don't see any other program for consideration. Programs in italics would not be available if the ACC holds as is. For the Big XII the top four would change to BYU, South Florida, Pittsburgh, and Louisville. BYU is a top for regardless. Florida State, Clemson, and Miami speak for themselves and the Big XII would do well to consider going to the Big XIV.  My gut says no Florida State, Clemson, or Miami. Without the ACC teams, South Florida makes sense to provide the Big XII with a presence in Florida. I am uncertain whether teams like Pittsburgh, Louisville, Syracuse or Air Force would be worth going to the Big XIV for, especially if it would be difficult to any team from the ACC. I think this is most likely. Though the Big XII and BYU failed to reach an agreement previously, the new BCS arrangement will make it very difficult for any independent team other than Notre Dame. BYU will be more flexible, and the Big XII will have no problem with a religious school as they already have Baylor and Texas Christian. South Florida will jump at the chance of joining the Big XII. Air Force declined previously due to the level and schedule of competition in the Big XII seems unlikely unless the Big XII expand to include Navy. Thus the Big XII should take BYU, South Florida, possible Air Force and Navy as well. This looks like a pretty good conference as the new Big XIV. These changes will leave the ACC intact.

The Big East will lose one to two programs (Navy and South Florida). If the Big East wish to have twelve teams for a championship game, two to four additional teams (assuming San Diego State returns to the MWC) will be needed. The candidates for the Big East are:

• Program: attendance / mcubed = value (trend)

1. Southern Mississippi: 25,751 / 53.4 = 482 (-)
2. Army: 32,205 / 81 = 397 (-)
3. Tulsa: 20,020 / 53.5 = 374 (-)
4. Arkansas St: 26,398 / 90.1 = 292 (+)
5. Buffalo: 13,242 / 97.6 = 135 (-)
6. Massachusetts: ?

Massachusetts is transitioning from FCS to FBS thus I have no data for them. They have been mentioned as a local candidate for Connecticut. As have been Tulsa. Southern Mississippi should really be considered as a regional presence, and it is a bridge between Tulane and Central Florida. I could see the following divisions:

• East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Connecticut, East Carolina, Navy (or Massachusetts), and Temple
• South: Houston, Memphis, SMU, Southern Mississippi, Tulane, and Tulsa

The next conference to be affected by realignment would be the MWC. But this would only occur if the Big XII take Air Force. I am skeptical BYU would join the MWC until the Big XII moves to 12 teams. UTEP would be a clear replacement for Air Force to revive old WAC rivalries and give the MWC a foothold in Texas. The MWC would likely stay at 12 but team 13 and 14 would have to be Idaho and New Mexico State. They should stay at 12.

• Program: attendance / mcubed = value (trend)

1. UTEP: 29,374 / 87.6 = 335 (+)
2. New Mexico St: 14,247 / 93.4 = 152 (-)
3. Idaho: 12,582 / 100 = 125 (+)

Should Conference USA lose both Southern Mississippi and Tulsa, they would still have 12 teams and a conference championship game. But if they also lose UTEP then Army or Arkansas State should be taken.

• Program: attendance / mcubed = value (trend)

1. Army: 32,205 / 81 = 397 (-)
2. Arkansas St: 26,398 / 90.1 = 292 (+)

The MAC would need replacement only if they lose Massachusetts and Buffalo, but all they need is one replacement to be at 12 as they have 13 now. Army, Marshall, and Western Kentucky should be considered. Army is the best option.

• Program: attendance / mcubed = value (trend)

1. Army: 32,205 / 81 = 397 (-)
2. Marshall: 24,896 / 82.7 = 301 (-)
3. Western Kentucky: 17,415 / 105.8 = 164 (+)

The Sun Belt belt could escape unscathed if they don't lose Arkansas State. But even if they take New Mexico State and Idaho, they would only be at 10 football schools. In addition to just FBS South Alabama and Georgia State following suit, two more FCS teams will be needed. It seems unlikely Arkansas Little Rock or Texas Arlington, already members of the Sun Belt, would start FBS football. I have no data for FCS so I have only guesses taken from recent FCS champions.

• North Dakota State
• Sam Houston State (Texas)
• Eastern Washington
• Delaware
• Villanova (Pennsylvania)
• Montana 
• Richmond (Virginia)
• Appalachian State (North Carolina)

Houston & SMU, where to?

Where should SMU & Houston go to? Big East? MWC? CUSA? Things to consider:

1. Money. Payout from the Big East is uncertain. Payout from the MWC will be about $1-2M. Payout for CUSA will be about $2M.

2. Competition. I am using mcubed analysis of the team's entire team's competitive history. Lower is better.

Big East
Cincinnati = 66.4
UConn = 71
USF  = 50.1
Temple = 75.7
Navy = 68.9
Memphis = 69.8
ECU = 61.5
Tulane = 82
Central Florida  = 60.2
Big East average = 67.2888888888889

MWC
Air Force  = 57
Boise St. = 34
Colorado St. = 71
Fresno St. = 67
Hawaii = 64
Nevada = 65
New Mexico = 76
San Diego St. = 54
San Jose St. = 77
UNLV = 81
Utah St. = 69
Wyoming  = 61
MWC average = 64.6666666666667

CUSA
Southern Mississippi = 53.4
Louisiana Tech = 66.6
Rice = 82.7
UAB = 89.6
UTSA = ?
Marshall = 82.7
Tulsa = 63.5
UN Charlotte = ? 
UTEP = 87.6
Old Dominion = ?
Middle Tennessee = 86.5
North Texas = 81.9
Florida International = 94.5
Florida Atlantic = 88.9
CUSA average = 79.8090909090909

3. Fan Base. For this I am using Nate Silver's analysis in the NYT from 2011.

Big East
Cincinnati = 322757
UConn = 618724
USF 5 = 520627
Temple = 226483
Navy = 237222
Memphis = 235656
ECU = 348391
Tulane = 101701
Central Florida 6 = 506679
Big East total = 3,118,240


MWC
Air Force  = 213946
Boise St.  = 483489
Colorado St. = 199506
Fresno St. = 251472
Hawaii = 295024
Nevada = 187221
New Mexico = 171154
San Diego St. = 242126
San Jose St. = 60292
UNLV = 136687
Utah St. = 65129
Wyoming  = 302935
MWC total = 2,608,981

CUSA
Southern Mississippi = 361613
Louisiana Tech = 179991
Rice = 126901
UAB = 236825
UTSA  = ?
Marshall = 225810
Tulsa = 119686
UN Charlotte = ?
UTEP = 114592
Old Dominion = ?
Middle Tennessee = 169621
North Texas = 202188
Florida International = 178669
Florida Atlantic = 145469
CUSA total = 2,061,365

4. Regional Population growth. All of the above are based on the past. Now I want to factor in regional population growth to suggest future movement. To simplify things I will just look at the states within the conference congressional seats gains and losses.

Big East = net -2 (+2 for Florida, -2 for Ohio, -1 for Louisiana, and -1 for Pennsylvania)
MWC = net +2 (+1 for Nevada and +1 for Utah)
CUSA = net +1 (+2 for Florida and -1 for Louisiana; Texas was not included as this is the native state for SMU and Houston)

Thus far the Big East has the edge in fan numbers (#3), the MWC has the edge in competition (#2) and regional population growth (#4), and CUSA has the tentative edge in payout (#1).

5. Unqualifiable. Food for thought.

Big East: instability.
MWC: access to the Pac12 by playing in Pac12 states of Colorado, Utah, and California. There is no way the B1G, Big XII or the SEC will consider either SMU or Houston. The ACC is just too far away, and the AAU North Carolina schools along with UVA will be too snobby to invite either programs. The Pac12 is hemmed in with limited options for expansion and should they want Texas, SMU and Houston could both be considered. In addition, the Bowl payout deal from the MWC gives the competing team a 50% share.
CUSA: ego of having to swallow their pride and go back to CUSA could be a factor. However, there are some good rivalry in CUSA like Tulsa, Southern Mississippi and Louisiana Tech that could be a draw.

Overall I think the MWC has a slight edge of appeal for SMU and Houston over the Big East and CUSA.

FBS Realignment

I understand realignment is driven by money, but somewhere a bigger pie won't make up for more slices in terms of the number of members and the available weeks for the members to play each other. Currently there are 12 weeks to a regular season. All teams will want to play non conference opponents to maintain non-conference rivalries, get in trial games, and gain exposures. Thus I believe most teams will want at least 3 non-conference games and this will leave 9 for conference plays. A ten teams conference such as the Big XII has a nine games conference schedule. However, a ten teams conference cannot hold a conference championship and loses out on an extra game to make money for the conference. If the championship game can bring in the cost of having two additional teams over ten then this will be a win win for the conference. A twelve teams conference with two divisions of 6 would yield 5 in-division games and up to 4 cross-division games. A fourteen teams conference with two divisions of 7 would yield 6 in-division games and up to 3 cross-division games. A sixteen teams conference with two divisions of 8 would  yield 7 in-division games and 2 cross-division games. However, 2 cross-division games against 8 teams mean one home and one away staggered results in 2 games every 8 years; might as well not be in the same conference. Thus I believe 16 teams conference is unwieldy. Thus I see 12 or 14 as the ideal size for a conference.

Thus when looking at conference expansion and realignment, I believe most major conference realignment must consider their current size as well as well as expansion options. By major conference I mean the big 5 as classified by the BCS starting 2014 to be the B1G, SEC, Pac12, BigXII, and ACC.

The B1G just acquired Rutgers and U Maryland to go to 14. I do not see them expanding further anytime soon and I do believe when they go looking they will want an AAU school. Westward there is only Iowa State but the B1G is already in Iowa and there just isn't much to gain by adding Iowa State. Kansas is unlikely as they will not travel without Kansas State. Southward there is the SEC and they are happy where they are. Eastward are UVA, UNC, Duke, and Georgia Tech. These are all ACC schools and I will express why none of these schools will leave for the B1G.

SEC is already at 14 with the recent addition of Texas A&M and Missouri. The only candidates they would look for would be a North Carolina school and a Virginia school to expand their footprint. Again these are ACC programs and I do not see them leaving.

Pac12 is currently at 12 but their expansion options are limited now that the Texas and Oklahoma schools have locked themselves in with the Big XII. There are six potential candidates for the Pac12 and they are BYU, Hawaii, Nevada, UNLV, Colorado State and Utah State. Given the current structures of the Pac12 membership of 2+ schools per state, the U and its sibling State U, I can see the next two additions being Colorado State and Utah State. I just do not see BYU or any other MWC teams being invited.

Big XII is currently at 10 and will expand. They can take 2-4 teams given that they already own the rights to the Big XIV. Who they take will depend on what happens with Maryland exit from the ACC and the $50 millions fee. If Maryland's exit goes well and not have to pay most of the $50 millions, then the Big XII will raid the ACC for Florida State and Clemson or Miami to go to 12. If Maryland's exit is difficult, then it will be difficult for the Big XII to buy out an ACC team in the same manner the B1G can help with Maryland's exit. In that case I believe the best candidates for the Big XII are Louisville, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, South Florida, Northern Illinois, and BYU. Though committed to the ACC, that they are not yet full members and thus, like TCU, may be able to leave with minimal cost. Pittsburgh would make a great regional partner for West Virginia and resume the backyard brawl rivalry. Pittsburgh is also a good market, a good program, and reasonably competitive in football. Cincinnati could be taken with Louisville for the regional synergy with each other as well as with Pittsburgh and West Virginia. Again the Keg of Nail rivalry between Louisville and Cincinnati would be preserved. Three teams would result in an odd number and team number 14 will be needed. South Florida will bring the Big XIV to Florida but will be on its own without realistic prospect for a future partner other than Miami. BYU would give the Big XIV an national marque. Northern Illinois will be considered only if they win against Florida State in the Orange Bowl as they might make a nice regional rival for Iowa State and provide a foothold in the Chicago market.

The ACC conference will hold largely because the core of the conference are the North Carolina schools and the Virginia schools, much like the Big XII held because of Texas and Oklahoma. These 6 schools, UNC, NC State, Duke, Wake Forest, UVA and VT will allow the ACC to endure, and as such so will BC. Whether Clemson, GT, FSU and Miami leave will depend in part on what happens with Maryland's exit. GT is attractive to the B1G and will need a partner to be taken, but Clemson, FSU and Miami are not AAU members. All four might be attractive to the Big XII. If the Maryland exit is difficult these four teams will not leave. If the Big XII then take Pittsburgh and Louisville, the ACC will counter by taking UConn (despite BC resistance in order to maintain a northern foothold with Syracuse), Navy and South Florida (possibly). My bet is Clemson, GT, FSU and Miami will all stay with the ACC.

In my opinion the Big East, without the Catholic BB schools, and without Boise State and probably SDSU in football, will likely cease to exist as an independent FBS conference. Some have suggested some sort of merger with CUSA and I think this is reasonable. The alternative is to build itself as a new football conference but with membership consisting of Temple, Navy, UConn, Cincinnati, USF, UCF, ECU, Memphis, Tulane, SMU and Houston, this grouping of teams has neither cohesion nor identity to exist as a whole.

Of the minor conferences, I believe the MAC appears most stable. With the addition of UMass they are at 13. They should be searching for a 14th and the best options are Temple (which was a member before bolting for the Big East), UConn (if they are not taken by the ACC), Marshal and Western Kentucky (both current CUSA members), and possibly Army.

The MWC will got to 12 with at least Boise State and SDSU. They could go with 14 with SMU and Houston, both Big East invitees. SMU and Houston will move west only if they believe the competition is better in the MWC, to recruit in California rather than Florida, and thus potentially lay the exposure groundwork in Pac 12 markets for future considerations by the Big XII. Neither are candidates for the Big XII or the SEC. Alternative schools are BYU, UTEP, Tulsa, Idaho, New Mexico State. BYU is unlikely because as long as they can set up 6 games with MWC teams, they will be fine with their current TV arrangements. Idaho and New Mexico State are also unlikely because they just don't have a tradition of being competitive.

The Sun Belt are scheduled to lose FAU, FIU, UNT and Middle Tennessee to the CUSA but is gaining Texas State, Georgia State, and UT Arlington (non football) to end at 9 football members. The Sun Belt should make every effort to keep at least three of these programs to get to 12 for a conference championship game. FAU and FIU should be taken as a set to keep Florida. UNT should be consider as a Texas partner with Texas State and similarly Middle Tennessee make a nice regional partner for Western Kentucky. If all four teams are kept the Sun Belt should look at New Mexico State to bring the conference membership to 14. Alternatively the Sun Belt could reach out to USF, UCF and ECU to got to 12 but this seem unlikely. With a presence in Florida and Texas the conference should be decent.

CUSA can pick up former members that left for the Big East that could not found membership in the Majors. These are SMU, Houston, ECU, Memphis, Tulane, and UCF. They are already at 12 so these will take them to 18. If Houston and SMU decide to go to the MWC, and if FAU, FIU, UNT and Middle Tennessee stay in the Sun Belt then CUSA should make an effort to take USF and or Navy. CUSA membership would be the current members, minus Houston and SMU, with Old Dominion, North Carolina Charlotte, UT San Antonio, and Louisiana Tech, without the Sun Belt additions, would leave the CUSA with 14, 16 with USF and Navy.

Big 12 Expansion: WVU sues the Big East

With the threat of Mizzou's impeding move, the Big 12 may only have 9 teams for 2012, which appears to put them at jeopardy for meeting their end of the TV contract. This is why they have been talking about Mizzou playing in 2012. As a fail safe they approach BYU but that has hit an impasse. Then they approach the next teams on their list, WVU and Louisville. WVU was willing to try to get out of the Big East in time for 2012 play so here we are. WVU has filed a lawsuit to leave the Big East before the 27 months hold and start Big 12 play in 2012.

Without this lawsuit, the Big East would have rebuilt itself for 2013 play, and the all the Big East teams who wanted out would likely have been out by 2013 rather than 2014. So in all likelihood this lawsuit makes for a 1 year difference. The Big 12 could have taken a harder look for a 2013 arrival while continuing to work on BYU. The Big 12 could and should have worked harder to keep Missouri. All the same time they could have taken Louisville, Cincinnati and WVU and declare the Big 12 is becoming the Big 14 by 2014. Any TV contract problems with 9 members should Missouri leaves could have been renegotiated in light of a forth comming Big 14.

This 27 month clause is similar to the 1 year clause by the C-USA, and even the 6 years tier 1 & tier 2 ownership clause by the Big 12. WVU was a willing participant of the 27 months Big East clause, as it is now a willing participant of the 6 years media ownership clause of the Big 12. These clauses serve the conference members by insuring short term stability, and enough time for the conference to reconstitute itself. I think this lawsuit really put WVU, and the Big 12, in a bad light. I am thinking when will WVU do the same to the Big 12. I am thinking how manipulative the Big 12 appears. The Big 1G, the ACC, the SEC, and the Pac10 did not need any such shenanigans.

Big East: Rebuild for Synergy

The Big East is having a tough year. So far three football programs have officially declared their departure (Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and West Virginia) and three more are looking to leave (Cincinnati, Connecticut, and Louisville). To rebuild, the Big East is looking to rebuild with teams like Air Force, Boise State, Central Florida, Houston, Navy, Southern Methodist, and possibly Army and Temple. Of these I do not believe Air Force or Boise State will join up. In fact, the target goal of the new Big East is 12 teams; I think they should plan for 14 just in case Louisville and Cincinnati both decides to leave. The teams under consideration are the best available from the C-USA, MAC, and independents but I believe additional teams should be considered.

There are no major teams left but the Big East did pretty good taking C-USA teams and with a higher level of competition, made them more competitive (Cincinnati, Louisville, and USF all come to mind) if not on the field definitely on college football fans' awareness. The best way to rebuild the Big East is to make sure that TVs are tuned to Big East games. Major media market are needed but rather than spread out to cover more markets, major markets within "reach" should be saturated. By this I mean have two Big East teams to cover each market so that each fall weekend a Big East game is played loco-regionally. The two teams thus should alternate home games for the season, with one game against each other to open the season. Once awareness is maintained or even raised, it will be easier to recruit and thus build better teams in the process.

Thus I propose the following. Listed are two teams set for synergy, each will play each other once a year every year but will be in different divisions of the Big East. Each team will also play 5-6 in division games (5 for a Big East with 12 teams, 6 for a Big East with 14 teams) as well as 2 rotating cross division games (staggered for a home and away game each). I have arranged the divisions based also on each team's average ranking from 1960-2010 as listed at mcubed. I have also included two teams making the transition from D2 to D1 for their geography, Villanova and UMass (both in italics below). These two teams will be placed in separate divisions. A contest should be conducted to name the two divisions as they will not be amenable to East & West or North & South. In the list, current Big East programs are in bold. Since in basketball divisions will not matter so much as all teams can play each other, the basketball only non-football programs are not listed.

Division A & Division B (mcubed average ranking 1960-2010)
Cincinnati (67.1) & Louisville (63.3) [Ohio Valley]
Connecticut (69.3) & Massachusetts (NA) [New England]
Buffalo (96.7) & Rutgers (73.2) [New York & Jersey]
South Florida (46.3) & Central Florida (72.3) [Florida]
Southern Methodist (69.3) & Houston (53.1) [Texas]
Villanova (89.9) & Temple (76.4) [Philadelphia]
Navy (68.7) & Army (80.5) [Military]
Average mcubed (72.5) & (69.8)

The two matched programs should open conference play with each other. Given inclusion of a bye week, all Big East programs can open conference play over two weekends. To foster a sense of rivalry and Big East conference should pay for a trophy of some sort trophy to represent these games but allow the two teams to name the trophy. The Big East would be smart to award the winner of the trophy a donation to their general scholarship fund ($10k+?). A scholarship contribution would make it more than a game trophy and get buy in from students (prospective, current, and alumni) and faculty. The Big East would be extra smart if it uses the exit fee money from teams leaving to create an endowment fund for a "Big East" scholarship at each schools (to remain at each school as long as they are members). The rivalry game prize money would go into this endowment fund. All this would generate a certain buzz and allow the Big East to market their conference play openers.

The Big East should also open conference play with the annual cross division rivalry games because it is possible that both teams could become division champions and a rematch could occur in the Big East championship game. Better to put as many games between their first encounter and their last encounter.

This Big East does not guarantee an automatic bid to the BCS (average rankings for the new Big East is 71.3 as compared to 57 for the old) but it does help lay a foundation for a good conference. How so? Well in addition to markets and marketing opportunities, this Big East will also have footprints in 5 of the top 10 states for for football recruitment according to Rivals (#1 Texas, #2 Florida, #5 Ohio, #6 Pennsylvania, and #10 New Jersey. The Big East has to rebuild for the long term.

Additional Notes.
1. The new Big East could start play in 2013 or 2014, depending on when they let out exiting members.
2. Average travel for both divisions are similar, both contain the Ohio Valley, New England, Florida, Texas and Philadelphia.
3. Both Buffalo and Rutgers are AAU members and are matched against each other.
4. If both Cincinnati and Louisville leave, the conference would still be OK with 12 teams.
5. If Boise State and Air Force joins, they would be set as cross division rivals.
6. If Notre Dame stays, their football team should play 4-6 games against Big East programs. This would help strength of schedule as well as another marketing opportunity.