As you all know, all the nation polls currently have Obama ahead of McCain with a statistically significant lead. This has causes a certain amount of anxiety for me because i truly believe that Obama is the wrong person to be our president. Today i found this post at
Strata Sphere that is giving me a glimmer of reason to think the polls may be wrong. Please read it all.
The gist is that voters do not vote based on party identification (For which the polls are weighted for) but that voters vote based on ideology. That political party and ideology are not one and the same. Thus the polls are using the wrong measures to correct for sampling errors.
No comments:
Post a Comment