Iraq Violence

As everyone knows, sectarian violence has been at an all time high in the past months. The latest in Bagdad today:

The radical Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr, whose Mehdi Army is held responsible for much of the sectarian killings, threatens his party’s six ministers and 30 lawmakers will boycott the government if prime minister Nouri Maliki meets US president George W. Bush in Amman next week. At least 30 Sunnis were butchered - 6 burned alive - and four mosques torched in the Sunni Hurriyah district Friday by rampaging Shiites seeking vengeance for five massive bombings that left at least 240 dead in Sadr City Thursday, Nov. 23.

As grim as things are, I believe these are unfortunately necessary occurrences if Iraq is to make it. The people on both sides must come to a point when they come to tire of the killing and dying, that violence is an unacceptable mean to settle political differences. Then and only then can the Iraqi government exert it self and be welcomed to it.

We have seen this sort of process before, whether it be Kampuchea or Afghanistan. In IRaq itself the majority of the Sunni tribes having grown weary of Al Qaeda actions in Anbar, have banded together against Al Qaeda.

The Anbar tribes' turn against al-Qaeda has developed significantly since the end of the Anbar Campaign late last year, which swept al-Qaeda and the insurgency from the major towns and cities west of Ramadi. Over the past year, the majority of the tribes have denounced al-Qaeda and formed alliances with the Iraqi government and U.S. forces operating in the region. Numerous 'foreign fighters' have been killed or captured by the tribes. The tribes are working to restore order, and are providing recruits for the police and Army, despite horrific suicide attacks on recruiting centers. These attacks have not deterred the recruiting, but in fact have motivated the tribes to fight al-Qaeda.

More US troops can impose a peace, but it is the sort of imposed peace that only delays violence, as was the imposed peace in the Balkans by Tito.

Thanksgiving

Happy Thanksgiving!

the Fall of Civilization

This article is both disurbing and sad in unbearable ways: Jihadis and Whores

Wars are won by destroying the enemy's will to fight. A nation is never really beaten until it sells its women.

HT: Roger L Simon

the Iraq Solution

There is much talk from the newly victorious Democrats about the solution to the ongoing violence in Iraq. One premise is that as long as the US commitment is open ended, there is little urgency for the Iraqi to come to a political solution to resolve the violence. While superficially, the US presence may have prolonged the resolution of the current sectarian violence, our departure will not usher in a peaceful solution. Without the tempering presence of US troops, violence will likely escalate. The solution then will come when the majority Shia suppresses the minority Sunni by force, while the Kurds will likely withdraw under such "solution." The result is more violence and oppression by arms, not the “political” solution the cut and run crowd think or want to happen.

This was the "political" solution the North Vietnamese chose as well.


I wonder what the "(International Realist) Iraqi Study Group" will recommend.



Related:
The Americans Have Served Their Purpose, And It's Time For Them To Go
Rumsfeld and the Realist

Election 2006 v. 2004: The Losers

Hopefully, this will be my last post on the recent election result, but i do want to make a few observations.

1. I am glad that no one is proclaiming the need to migrate to Canada.
2. I am glad that there isn't any claim of stolen election.

I conclude that some are more mature than others when things don't go their way.

Veterans Day

Respectfully honoring the service of all veterans who have fought for freedom and justice.

Rumsfeld and the 06 Post Mortem

I am disappointed that Rumsfeld is the fall guy for the 2006 election losses for the Republicans. Clearly this was something discussed before last night as evidenced by the announcement within hours of electoral defeat and the immediate nomination of his replacement. I surmise that his resignation prior to today would have been seen as a political move to strengthen the Republican electoral chances, thereby weaken the morale of our troops and strengthened the nay saying hordes on the left. His resignation was an appeasement offering to the Republican Party who viewed that Bush's unpopularity as contributing to their electoral defeat. I do not believe he was forced out. I believed it was freely given, as it was before. Rumsfeld did what he could to transform the military, and I believe he served honorably and contributed significant improvement to our arms forces. His departure is our nations lost.

I am also disappointed because his resignation will not help the Republican cause. I am fairly certain the Republican defeat was in no way related to Bush. Bush's approval rating has consistently been higher than that of Republican controlled Congress. While the Iraq war may have been a factor, it was not the deciding factor. The deciding factor was the failure of the Republicans to deliver to the American people.

What have been wrought?
A drug prescription plan that was needed but birthed with unnecessary complicated rules for an elderly population that needed simplicity.
And little else comes to mind.
Where is the social security reform?
Where is the tax reform?
Where is the immigration reform?
Where is any meaningful legislation to make America better?
Note that G.W. Bush led the campaigns for all of these things, as well as the War on Terror.

Unfortunately, and fortunately, I do not foresee and significant programs or changes in the next two years either.

My advice to the Republican Party:
Start preparing now for 2006 by cleaning out all taint of corruptions now. And that may include forcing corrupt members to resign their seats. As there is no longer a Republican majority, their temporary absence would not be lost. Their replacement should be chosen with an eye toward 08. And on the way to 08, make it about an "ownership society" and about "personal responsibility."


Related on Rumsfeld's resignation:
Austin Bay
Former Spook
On the post mortem:
Former Spook
Roger L Simon

Election 2006: Outcome

As a firm supporter of the war on terror, including the battles in Afghanistan and Iraq, I am rather disappointed by yesterday's election result. I fear that just like when Congress cut fundings for South Vietnam 30+ years ago, they will do so again and abandon the all the millions of Iraqis interested in freedom and democracy. I sincerely hope that with the slew of moderate and conservative new Democrats, this will not happen.

I do believe that the move of the Democratic party toward the center is a good thing both for the Democratic party and the nation as a whole. This nation needs both political parties to be vibrant and reasonable.

I am intrigued by the situation in the Senate. There is an opportunity for the two independent senators, the most prominent being Joe Lieberman (who i liked for 2004), to make a difference as powerbroker between the Democrats and Republicans.

Election 2006

I voted.
I voted to keep the nuts from running this asylum.

2006 Election: National Referendum

The media is presenting this year's mid term election as a referendum on Bush and the Iraq war. Yet, if we believe the polls, the popular sentiment is much more one of displeasure of Congress than of the President. Approval to Disapproval polling for the President is 38%: 56% and for Congress is 27%: 65%. While national politics and issue always are considered, I believe that come Tuesday, the vote will remain a local issue driven election.

Iraq and Iran

What would happen if Iraq descends into chaos. How would the current players respond?

The US would likely retreat into Kurdistan and back into Kuwait.
The Shia and the Sunni will continue to duke it out in the remaining Iraq.

What would Iran do? Would Iran be drawn into Iraq? And could this then either ignite a regional war? If a regional war does not develop could Iran be drawn into an Iraq turmoil, now perpetuated by US and allies, and subsequently destabilize Iran itself?

Interesting.

Pakistan

While the world reacts to North Korea's recent nuclear test, and wait with baited breath as to what will happen next with Iran, I fear that the greatest nuclear danger will be overlooked. Pakistan, a nuclear state, is on the verge of becoming a failed state.

Firstly, Pakistan recently lost its western territory of Waziristan to the Taliban through a "peace" accord. Not only will this provide a haven for the Taliban to continue its activities in Afghanistan, it will allow the Islamofascists to continue to act against Pakistan. Already their influence in the Pakistan secret service continues to destabilize the region through support and planning of the terrorist attack in Mumbai on 711 against neighboring India, they are complicit in the recent bombing attack on Musharraf and the coup attempt against Pakistani president Musharraf. If the Islamofascist succeeds in winning control of Pakistan, they will have won in one stroke a nuclear Islamic state.

A nuclear North Korea can be contained and destabilized with China's help. Probably best done by opening up the border and allow North Koreans to leave. But actual military strike will be unacceptably risky for both South Korea and Japan; at least until an effective missile defense can be fielded.

A nuclear Iran is still a way off. Once there, a pre-empted strike will remain a viable option given the global failure of Diplomacy against North Korea. In addition, access to Iranians to destabilize the current regime in Tehran remains substantial.

But an Islamofascist control of Pakistan can happen over night. The only way this disaster can be averted is for Musharraf to stop appeasing the islamofascist elements of his government and clamp down and cleanse the radical elements, followed by a joint operation with NATO and Afghanistan and reclaim Waziristan.

Washington Scandals

By now we all have heard about the Mark Foley scandal. Nothing further needs to be mentioned here and in truth, it all seems just another example of inappropriate behavior from the politicians of Washington DC.

But I am struck by contrast between the host of allegations of wrong doing leveled against the Bush administration and the paucity of any actual and factual evidence of such. Lots of noise and blusters, very little substance. Sure there was the Plame affair but after all that time and effort, to say nothing of the money spent, the only finding was possible perjury by Scooter Libby. That is it.

This leads me to conclude that the source of allegations against Bush are predicated on political agendas rather than and legal or even moral substance. The Democratic party: lots of sounds and fury, signifying nothing.

Global War on Terror

This weekend saw the report that since 911, Islamic Terrorism has gotten worse globally. Aside from the poor reporting containing only hearsay which not much more need to be said of, if it was meant to be some sort of indictment of the GWoT I think they got it all wrong.

1. In a long war such as this war, if our actions do not anger those trying to destroy us, we are not doing enough.

2. If in being angered they reveal themselves as the Islamofascist that they are wanting to be, then even better and easier for us to kill them.


I do not understand why in waging a war so many still want us to play nice. Wars should be brutal enough to want to win rapidly lest any on either side think to drag it out longer than necessary, and enough so the peace afterward last a bit longer till the next war.


see also:
Roger L Simon's comment
In From the Cold additional snips from the same NIE analysis not reported by NYT or WaPo

Interrogation

Several activities are currently encircling what may or may not happen during interrogation of suspected terrorists.

The president is seeking clarification from the US congress on what is and what is not permissible. This is important to do to maintain legal support for our effort on the war on terror. Whatever is decided, it should not be less permissible than what we could do to arrested criminals.

Whatever policy we adopt will in no way increase or decrease the chances of our captured soldiers from being tortured. We cannot dictate the actions of our enemies. And we cannot hold them accountable. What Geneva Convention signatory nation have been fined or punished for torture? And what of non-signatories like terrorist organization? Will they care that we treat their prisoners nicely and thus not behead ours?

And what are the consequences of an overly strict policy regarding interrogation? Consider this perspective from the WSJ:

Opponents of interrogating al Qaeda detainees keep slandering the Bush Administration by equating all aggressive questioning techniques with "torture." What's more, they seem unable to draw the obvious lessons from our experience handling terror suspects thus far.

Take the case of Maher Arar, an apparently innocent Canadian citizen who was arrested at JFK airport in September 2002 and turned over to Syria -- a process known as "rendition" -- where he actually appears to have been tortured. According to some of our media colleagues, this shows that CIA officials can't be trusted with the authority they're seeking under the proposed new Detainee Act to use a number of "stress techniques" against high level al Qaeda detainees.

But Mr. Arar's case proves exactly the opposite. For starters, it was the Canadian government that supplied what appears to have been bad information about Mr. Arar's alleged al Qaeda ties. More to the point, the temptation to get vital information by "rendering" such suspects for interrogation by governments that have little respect for human rights will only increase if the CIA's own al Qaeda interrogation program is shut down. This may make some in Congress feel better about themselves, but it won't do much for the "rights" of those interrogated.

The White House has been negotiating over the issue with Senator John McCain so U.S. interrogators aren't left in legal limbo because Congress refuses to define our obligations under Common Article 3 of the Geneva Conventions. It's precisely such legal clarity that will limit potential abuses, rather than leaving Article 3 open to interpretation by individuals -- or by the likes of Syria, since as it stands every country in the world interprets Article 3 in its own way now.

Crucial to any compromise is that the new rules not only protect CIA interrogators under relevant U.S. law (the 1996 War Crimes Act), but also assert our understanding of our obligations under Geneva. This is not about "rewriting" Geneva, as Mr. McCain and others have previously suggested; it is about the necessity of fleshing out what vague Article 3 prohibitions against "humiliating" treatment and the like actually mean.

President Bush has been very strong on this issue so far. We trust he won't endorse anything now that falls short of the comprehensive legal clarity he's been right to demand.

911 Afterward

Our greatest mistake since 911 is that we as a nation have not unified for total war against our enemy.

In waging this war, we should show no mercy to those who have not have not shown mercy to the innocent.

And those who impede out effort should be treated as collaborators and facilitator of our enemies.

Vegetative thoughts

From the WSJ Science section:

In a startling new report in today's issue of the journal Science, however, scientists describe how the young accident victim in a vegetative state shows brain activity consistent with conscious awareness.

When the scientists spoke to her, advanced imaging showed, her brain registered activity in regions responsible for decoding language, just as the brains of normal volunteers do. When they used sentences with homonyms, which require more complicated semantic processing, the appropriate parts of her brain lit up, again just like healthy brains.

Either response might be dismissed as automatic and therefore unconscious. After all, some people in a vegetative state retain "islands" of preserved neural function, Nicholas Schiff of New York-Presbyterian Hospital/Weill Cornell Medical Center and colleagues found in a 2002 study, but not in areas involved in higher mental function. Similarly, studies have shown that some people who are asleep, under general anesthesia or in a vegetative state show brain activity consistent with perceiving speech and responding to emotion-laden words and their name.

That's why simply responding to speech, admits neuroscientist Adrian Owens of the Medical Research Council Cognition and Brain Sciences Unit, Cambridge, who led the new study, is "not unequivocal evidence that [the woman] is consciously aware."

So they asked her to imagine playing tennis. Remarkably, this made neurons fire in the premotor cortex, a region that hums with activity when you mentally practice sophisticated movement, from a jump shot to a backhand. Then they asked her to imagine walking through each room of her house. This time her parahippocampal gyrus, which generates spatial maps, became active, again just as in healthy volunteers.

"We know from extensive research that brain responses of this type do not occur automatically," says Prof. Owens, but "require the willed, intentional action of the participant."

He cautions that the results apply only to this patient, and that others in a vegetative state aren't this responsive. Indeed, 60 previous patients in a vegetative state show no such brain activity, says Steven Laureys of the University of Liege, Belgium. "But she was different," he says. "Her brain activity shows a clear act of intention. The activity in her higher-order cognitive areas means, to me, that she was consciously aware of herself and her surroundings."

Lionel Naccache of the National Institute of Health and Medical Research in Orsay, France, calls the woman's response to the tennis and home tasks "quite spectacular" and evidence of "a rich mental life." But he notes that consciousness, according to neuroscience, requires engaging "in intentional actions or interactions" with the outside world. If she is conscious, why does she show no spontaneous intentional behavior, especially since there is no damage to parts of the brain that control moving or speaking?

Although the woman fits the diagnosis of being in a vegetative state, her brain activity raises the intriguing (or disturbing) possibility that there is a fully conscious being locked in that unresponsive body after all. The scientists doubt this, pointing out that there is nothing wrong with her motor function, so if there really were a conscious being in there she would purposefully move at least her eyes. Cornell's Dr. Schiff suspects that she may at least be moving into "a minimally conscious state."

Stifling Free Speech

It appears that elements of the US government is trying to pressure and influence a broadcast media company. It appears that leadership of the Democratic party is threatening ABC/Disney. Curious:

We write with serious concerns about the planned upcoming broadcast of The Path to 9/11 mini-series on September 10 and 11. Countless reports from experts on 9/11 who have viewed the program indicate numerous and serious inaccuracies that will undoubtedly serve to misinform the American people about the tragic events surrounding the terrible attacks of that day. Furthermore, the manner in which this program has been developed, funded, and advertised suggests a partisan bent unbecoming of a major company like Disney and a major and well respected news organization like ABC. We therefore urge you to cancel this broadcast to cease Disney’s plans to use it as a teaching tool in schools across America through Scholastic. Presenting such deeply flawed and factually inaccurate misinformation to the American public and to children would be a gross miscarriage of your corporate and civic responsibility to the law, to your shareholders, and to the nation.

The Communications Act of 1934 provides your network with a free broadcast license predicated on the fundamental understanding of your principle obligation to act as a trustee of the public airwaves in serving the public interest. Nowhere is this public interest obligation more apparent than in the duty of broadcasters to serve the civic needs of a democracy by promoting an open and accurate discussion of political ideas and events. [...]

Should Disney allow this programming to proceed as planned, the factual record, millions of viewers, countless schoolchildren, and the reputation of Disney as a corporation worthy of the trust of the American people and the United States Congress will be deeply damaged. We urge you, after full consideration of the facts, to uphold your responsibilities as a respected member of American society and as a beneficiary of the free use of the public airwaves to cancel this factually inaccurate and deeply misguided program. We look forward to hearing back from you soon.

Sincerely,


Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid

Assistant Democratic Leader Dick Durbin

Senator Debbie Stabenow

Senator Charles Schumer

Senator Byron Dorgan

Postwar Germany

Germany lost about 5 million soldiers in World War 2. Survivors were typically those that surrendered. These same survivors would return to rebuild the new Germany. I wonder if the same mindset that led soldiers to surrender has contributed to the current political mentality in Germany and perhaps all of continental Europe, the mindset of appeasement rather than risking one's life for a cause. Interesting.

Lebanon 5: France

Can France be any worse on the world's diplomatic stage? She fights the US for leadership to resolve the Lebanon crisis. She assumes authorship of the ceasefire resolution, UN SCR1701. She talks up leading the UN peacekeeping contingency. And once everything is agreed to upon, France backs out. Words such as fop and cowards spring to mind.

True no one was happy with the ceasefire resolution, but then why craft a resolution that you yourself are unhappy with enough not to want to participate in it? And despite its flaws, there were actual opportunity for France to shine.

I guess if you try to shine France to get a luster, all you get are crumbs.