Big 12 Expansion Prediction

On January 28th and the 29th the Big XII will meet and on the agenda is expansion. This weekend the latest news is a potential alliance of games among the Big XII and the ACC, along with two other conferences (Pac 12? and?). Among the benefit of an alliance is interconference stability and thus some believe this will preclude expansion. I believe this interpretation is incorrect because any alliance will be easier to arrange when the participating conferences have the same number of teams. The Big XII currently has only 10 members to the ACC 14. Lets look at other potential alliance conferences like the Pac 12, which will likely remain at 12 for a long time. It seems unlikely the 4th conference is any of the other major 5 (B1G or SEC, both of which are at 14). That leaves the MAC (at 13), CUSA (at 12 - 14) and the Sun Belt (at 8). Numerically the Big XII will fit into the alliance schedule better with 12-14 teams.

The Big XII has been reluctant to expand. They do not really want to split the current money pie among more members than 10. The TV revenue contract was signed last year and will run through the 2024-25 season so changes to renegotiate and increase revenue may not be easy. However the Big XII is clearly interested in staging a championship game. The new BCS arrangement may also favor conferences with a championship game. However, the NCAA mandate at least 12 teams for a conference to stage a championship game. This alliance talk really suggests the Big XII will expand.

There are two likely potential scenarios for Big XII expansion: one is for the Big XII to go to XIV but this is the less likely scenario unless the additional teams can cause a renegotiation of the TV contracts. As previously stated this scenario will include teams from the ACC such as FSU, Miami and Clemson as there aren't any other available teams out there of significant stature to cause renegotiation. I cannot imaging the Big XII employing a two handed, forked tongue negotiation for an alliance with the ACC and then raiding the ACC for teams.  I guess a deal can be arranged with the ACC to transfer two teams to the Big XII to leave both at 12. Going from 14 to 12 may mean more money for the remaining 12 ACC teams. In the backdrop of an alliance allows them to remain in the play schedule with the ACC still. Teams up for transfer might be FSU, Clemson, Miami and Louisville, all expressed some interests in joining the Big XII. These teams are also valuable football members of the ACC and thus seem unlikely to be "transferred." I understand if these teams are invited and choose to leave the ACC the ACC may not be able to do anything about it. However, the reason for these teams to leave would also be lessened with an alliance; they will be able to regularly play against a more football competitive Big XII and strengthen their game schedule and thus their tier 3 revenues. But given the underlying threat of B1G and SEC raiding the ACC I seriously doubt any serious consideration for the ACC to transfer any teams out. We will know more when the court decide where the Maryland exit suit will be fielded, in Maryland or in North Carolina.

While other teams like BYU, USF, Air Force, Navy, Cincinnati and Louisville (slated for the ACC) are available, no four will be sufficiently worthwhile to trigger TV contract renegotiation. Twelve it will be and no more for the Big XII. I hold with previous prediction of the Big XII will expand with BYU and USF. If so lets look at the new Big XII divisions:

• West: BYU, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and TCU
• East: Baylor, Kansas, Oklahoma State, South Florida, Texas, and West Virginia

The two divisions are roughly equivalent in 60 years football competitiveness by mcubed rating with West at 52.0 and East at 48.2 (lower is better) and 7 years football competitiveness by F+ score with West at 9 and East at 7.2 (higher is better). These divisions also allow all teams equivalent exposure geographically to the heart of the Big XII: Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. This arrangement will necessitate at least one annual protect rivalry across division, possibly two annual protect rivalries. Keeping a nine game conference schedule will mean 5 in-division games and 4 cross-division games (2 annual protected and the remaining 2 split among the remaining 4 cross division teams every other year).

• Team: protected rival 1 & protect rival 2
• Baylor: TCU & BYU
• BYU: West Virginia & Baylor
• Iowa State: South Florida & Kansas
• Kansas: Kansas State & Iowa State
• Kansas State: Kansas & South Florida
• Oklahoma: Oklahoma State & Texas
• Oklahoma State: Oklahoma & Texas Tech
• South Florida: Iowa State & Kansas State
• Texas: Texas Tech & Oklahoma
• TCU: Baylor & West Virginia
• Texas Tech: Texas & Oklahoma State
• West Virginia: BYU & TCU

Note the following:

1. All three religious schools play each other every year.
2. The mountain states play each other (BYU & WVU).
3. Iowa State plays their nearest geographic neighbors (Kansas and Kansas State) as well has access to Florida for recruitment (in addition to Texas).
4. Up comer Kansas State also have access to Florida for recruitment (in addition to Texas).
5. New members BYU and USF have cross division rivalry with current members rather than each other (BYU with WVU and Baylor, USF with Iowa State and Kansas State). 
6. Recent newcomer TCU and WVU are protect rivals.
7. Former MWC members are in the same division: BYU and TCU
8. Former Big East members are in the same division: WVU & USF
9. The following historical Big XII rivalries are thus affected:

• Baylor & TCU rivaly since 1899: Baylor and TCU (every year)
• Bedlam Series since 1904: Oklahoma and Oklahoma State (yearly)
• Chancellor's Spurs since 1928: Texas and Texas Tech (yearly)
• Chisholm Trail since 1913: Kansas State and Texas (every other year)
• Farmageddon since 1917: Iowa State and Kansas State (yearly)
• Red River Rivalry since 1900: Oklahoma and Texas (yearly)
• Sunflower Showdown since 1902: Kansas and Kansas State (yearly)
• Texas Farm Bureau Shootout since 1929: Baylor and Texas Tech (every other year)

Update: A good argument for expansion to host a conference championship game:

There's an argument that a conference championship game, which would necessitate 12 teams, would have elevated 2011 Oklahoma State and 2012 Kansas State -- both with one loss – closer to the top of the standings in a playoff format.

I hadn't thought of how a CCG may actually help land the conference champion in the national championship game rather than hurt the conference champion.

FBS Program Proposed Value, Validated

In a previous post I sought to analyze the available FBS teams value for realignment considerations.  I used two resources. Firstly is mcubed which take a team's football record from 1960 through 2012 analyzed and ranked; lower is thus better. This gives me an understanding how competitive a team is, along with its competitive reputation. Second is the team's popularity and I use the actual averaged stadium attendance for 2012, with a percentage change from 2011. I then took the attendance figure divided by the mcubed rank to get one number, and this time the bigger the figure the higher the value, at least as by my method.

I will now attempt to validate this method of analysis and valuation through internal comparison of the value of the Big XII teams with each other, then with a WSJ estimation of the major FBS teams dollar worth. So here is the Big 12 ranked.

• Program: attendance / mcubed = value 

1. Texas: 100,884 / 22.4 = 4,503
2. Oklahoma: 85,243 21.7 = 3,928
3. West Virginia: 55,916 / 40 = 1397
4. Texas Tech: 57,209 / 48.4 = 1,182
5. Oklahoma St: 56,557 / 51.6 = 1,096
6. Iowa St: 55,274 / 68.7 = 804
7. Kansas St: 50,278 / 67.1 = 749
8. TCU: 46,047 / 63.7 = 722
9. Kansas: 41,329 / 63 = 656
10. Baylor: 41,194 / 63.2 = 651

• Average: 58,993.1 / 50.98 = 1157

The top two programs Texas and Oklahoma appears correct. West Virginia, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State are also correctly placed in the top half of the conference. West Virginia rank may be higher because their competitiveness is based largely against Big East programs, typically seen and less competitive than the Big XII. But Kansas State appears inappropriately low bunched in the bottom half of the conference. Lets look at the WSJ worth ranking.

• Program: Value (in million $)

1. Texas: 761.7
2. Oklahoma: 454.7
3. Texas Tech: 211
4. Oklahoma State: 209.1
5. Kansas State: 207.1
6. West Virginia: 159.4
7. Iowa State: 140.3
8. Kansas: 103.4
9. Texas Christian: 76.6
10. Baylor: 71.3

So again the top 2 teams are similar to my valuation calculation, as is the bottom Baylor. Texas Tech and Oklahoma State are also very close together. Kansas State rates higher per the WSJ than West Virginia did, likely because West Virginia only just join from the Big East, a lower value conference. While not directly correlative, the analyzed value appears approximately reasonable. Lets look at the programs under consideration again, and compare them against the Big XII average.

• Program: attendance / mcubed = value (value in millions)

1. Florida State: 75,601 / 27.6 = 2,739 ($159)
2. Clemson: 79,429 / 44.3 = 1,792 ($201.8)
3. BYU: 61,161 / 42.6 = 1,435 ($136.1)
4. Miami: 47,719 / 33.8 = 1,411 ($157.7)

• Big XII Average: 58,993.1 / 50.98 = 1157

1. South Florida: 44,130 / 50.1 = 880 ($101.2)
2. Pittsburgh: 41494 / 48.5 = 855 ($59.6)
3. Louisville: 49,991 / 63.4 = 788 ($75.4)
4. Syracuse: 37,953 / 49.5 = 766 ($91.4)
5. Air Force: 32,015 / 57.1 = 560 (?)
6. Connecticut: 34,672 / 71 = 488 ($101.8)
7. Navy: 32,363 / 68.9 = 469 (?)
8. Cincinnati: 29,138 / 66.4 = 438 ($48.9)

Again Florida State and Clemson show themselves to be top of the list and well above the Big XII average. BYU and Miami also show themselves to be above the Big XII average. The Big XII should be cautious in taking program below Big XII average. Likely the Big XII will only take lower value program to go to 12 and I continue to believe South Florida is the best candidate of the rest. The value of Air Force and Navy remain unknown economically, but their perceived value appear high.

FBS Conferences Realignment Options Analyzed

There is an order to realignment picks, the major five (ACC, B1G, Big XII, Pac 12, SEC) picks before the minor conferences (Big East, CUSA, MAC, MWC, and Sun Belt). The Big East has been relegated  to minor status. Of the major five, the B1G, the Pac 12, and the SEC are the top three. These top three have very defined geography and will likely stay geographically based. Of these the Pac 12 have very limited options and at this point, they are not likely to expand. The expansion candidates for both the B1G and the SEC expansion candidates all reside in the ACC. The B1G candidates are Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia Tech. The SEC candidates are Virginia Tech and North Carolina State. My sense remains that the two Virginia schools and all four North Carolina schools will remain in the ACC. If this is true, then there will be no expansion for the B1G or the SEC in the near future. Thus of the major conferences, expansion will depend on the ACC and the Big XII.

The ACC just lost one (Maryland) while taking three (Louisville, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse) to go to 14. The Big XII has recently lost 4 (Colorado, Missouri, Nebraska and Texas A&M) while taking only two (Texas Christian and West Virginia). Despite being smaller than before, the media grants of rights contract agreement appear to make the Big XII more stable than the ACC. I believe the ACC is unlikely to expand further at this point, but if they do Cincinnati and Connecticut are the likely options. The ACC is not in the position to take from the Big XII.

Whether the Big XII expands will depend on whether a conference championship game will offset the cost of the additional members, whether the BCS 4+1 format for 2014 will benefits conferences with the championship more, and finally how easy or how hard Maryland's exit from the ACC's with the $50 million charge will be. However, unlike the ACC, the Big XII should they expand, could take from the ACC but if so, it should happen sooner rather than later. Allow me to explain. If Maryland's exit is arduous, thus making it difficult for the Big XII to take from the ACC, then they may want to have the option to take Louisville, Pittsburgh and Syracuse before they become full ACC members. If Maryland's exit is easy, the ACC will likely take steps to make exit more arduous, such as a media grants of rights like the B1G, Pac 12 and the Big XII have and thus the window to take from the ACC may close fairly quickly. We should know this year whether the Big 12 will expand or not and if they do, a cascade of reaction will follows.

To analyze the available teams, I used two resources. Firstly is mcubed which take a team's football record from 1960 through 2012 analyzed and ranked; lower is thus better. This gives me an understanding how competitive a team is, along with its competitive reputation. Second is the team's popularity and I use the actual averaged stadium attendance for 2012, with a percentage change from 2011. I then took the attendance figure divided by the mcubed rank to get one number, and this time the bigger the figure the higher the value, at least as by my method.

For the Big XII candidate I have assumed the Virginia and North Carolina ACC schools are not available. Thus the candidates are, in order;

• Program: attendance / mcubed = value (trend from 2011 - 2012)

1. Florida State: 75,601 / 27.6 = 2,739 (-)
2. Clemson: 79,429 / 44.3 = 1,792 (+)
3. BYU: 61,161 / 42.6 = 1,435 (+)
4. Miami: 47,719 / 33.8 = 1,411 (+)
5. South Florida: 44,130 / 50.1 = 880 (-)
6. Pittsburgh: 41494 / 48.5 = 855 (-)
7. Louisville: 49,991 / 63.4 = 788 (+)
8. Syracuse: 37,953 / 49.5 = 766 (-)
9. Air Force: 32,015 / 57.1 = 560 (-)
10. Connecticut: 34,672 / 71 = 488 (-)
11. Navy: 32,363 / 68.9 = 469 (-)
12. Cincinnati: 29,138 / 66.4 = 438 (-)

I just don't see any other program for consideration. Programs in italics would not be available if the ACC holds as is. For the Big XII the top four would change to BYU, South Florida, Pittsburgh, and Louisville. BYU is a top for regardless. Florida State, Clemson, and Miami speak for themselves and the Big XII would do well to consider going to the Big XIV.  My gut says no Florida State, Clemson, or Miami. Without the ACC teams, South Florida makes sense to provide the Big XII with a presence in Florida. I am uncertain whether teams like Pittsburgh, Louisville, Syracuse or Air Force would be worth going to the Big XIV for, especially if it would be difficult to any team from the ACC. I think this is most likely. Though the Big XII and BYU failed to reach an agreement previously, the new BCS arrangement will make it very difficult for any independent team other than Notre Dame. BYU will be more flexible, and the Big XII will have no problem with a religious school as they already have Baylor and Texas Christian. South Florida will jump at the chance of joining the Big XII. Air Force declined previously due to the level and schedule of competition in the Big XII seems unlikely unless the Big XII expand to include Navy. Thus the Big XII should take BYU, South Florida, possible Air Force and Navy as well. This looks like a pretty good conference as the new Big XIV. These changes will leave the ACC intact.

The Big East will lose one to two programs (Navy and South Florida). If the Big East wish to have twelve teams for a championship game, two to four additional teams (assuming San Diego State returns to the MWC) will be needed. The candidates for the Big East are:

• Program: attendance / mcubed = value (trend)

1. Southern Mississippi: 25,751 / 53.4 = 482 (-)
2. Army: 32,205 / 81 = 397 (-)
3. Tulsa: 20,020 / 53.5 = 374 (-)
4. Arkansas St: 26,398 / 90.1 = 292 (+)
5. Buffalo: 13,242 / 97.6 = 135 (-)
6. Massachusetts: ?

Massachusetts is transitioning from FCS to FBS thus I have no data for them. They have been mentioned as a local candidate for Connecticut. As have been Tulsa. Southern Mississippi should really be considered as a regional presence, and it is a bridge between Tulane and Central Florida. I could see the following divisions:

• East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Connecticut, East Carolina, Navy (or Massachusetts), and Temple
• South: Houston, Memphis, SMU, Southern Mississippi, Tulane, and Tulsa

The next conference to be affected by realignment would be the MWC. But this would only occur if the Big XII take Air Force. I am skeptical BYU would join the MWC until the Big XII moves to 12 teams. UTEP would be a clear replacement for Air Force to revive old WAC rivalries and give the MWC a foothold in Texas. The MWC would likely stay at 12 but team 13 and 14 would have to be Idaho and New Mexico State. They should stay at 12.

• Program: attendance / mcubed = value (trend)

1. UTEP: 29,374 / 87.6 = 335 (+)
2. New Mexico St: 14,247 / 93.4 = 152 (-)
3. Idaho: 12,582 / 100 = 125 (+)

Should Conference USA lose both Southern Mississippi and Tulsa, they would still have 12 teams and a conference championship game. But if they also lose UTEP then Army or Arkansas State should be taken.

• Program: attendance / mcubed = value (trend)

1. Army: 32,205 / 81 = 397 (-)
2. Arkansas St: 26,398 / 90.1 = 292 (+)

The MAC would need replacement only if they lose Massachusetts and Buffalo, but all they need is one replacement to be at 12 as they have 13 now. Army, Marshall, and Western Kentucky should be considered. Army is the best option.

• Program: attendance / mcubed = value (trend)

1. Army: 32,205 / 81 = 397 (-)
2. Marshall: 24,896 / 82.7 = 301 (-)
3. Western Kentucky: 17,415 / 105.8 = 164 (+)

The Sun Belt belt could escape unscathed if they don't lose Arkansas State. But even if they take New Mexico State and Idaho, they would only be at 10 football schools. In addition to just FBS South Alabama and Georgia State following suit, two more FCS teams will be needed. It seems unlikely Arkansas Little Rock or Texas Arlington, already members of the Sun Belt, would start FBS football. I have no data for FCS so I have only guesses taken from recent FCS champions.

• North Dakota State
• Sam Houston State (Texas)
• Eastern Washington
• Delaware
• Villanova (Pennsylvania)
• Montana 
• Richmond (Virginia)
• Appalachian State (North Carolina)

FBS Realignment

I understand realignment is driven by money, but somewhere a bigger pie won't make up for more slices in terms of the number of members and the available weeks for the members to play each other. Currently there are 12 weeks to a regular season. All teams will want to play non conference opponents to maintain non-conference rivalries, get in trial games, and gain exposures. Thus I believe most teams will want at least 3 non-conference games and this will leave 9 for conference plays. A ten teams conference such as the Big XII has a nine games conference schedule. However, a ten teams conference cannot hold a conference championship and loses out on an extra game to make money for the conference. If the championship game can bring in the cost of having two additional teams over ten then this will be a win win for the conference. A twelve teams conference with two divisions of 6 would yield 5 in-division games and up to 4 cross-division games. A fourteen teams conference with two divisions of 7 would yield 6 in-division games and up to 3 cross-division games. A sixteen teams conference with two divisions of 8 would  yield 7 in-division games and 2 cross-division games. However, 2 cross-division games against 8 teams mean one home and one away staggered results in 2 games every 8 years; might as well not be in the same conference. Thus I believe 16 teams conference is unwieldy. Thus I see 12 or 14 as the ideal size for a conference.

Thus when looking at conference expansion and realignment, I believe most major conference realignment must consider their current size as well as well as expansion options. By major conference I mean the big 5 as classified by the BCS starting 2014 to be the B1G, SEC, Pac12, BigXII, and ACC.

The B1G just acquired Rutgers and U Maryland to go to 14. I do not see them expanding further anytime soon and I do believe when they go looking they will want an AAU school. Westward there is only Iowa State but the B1G is already in Iowa and there just isn't much to gain by adding Iowa State. Kansas is unlikely as they will not travel without Kansas State. Southward there is the SEC and they are happy where they are. Eastward are UVA, UNC, Duke, and Georgia Tech. These are all ACC schools and I will express why none of these schools will leave for the B1G.

SEC is already at 14 with the recent addition of Texas A&M and Missouri. The only candidates they would look for would be a North Carolina school and a Virginia school to expand their footprint. Again these are ACC programs and I do not see them leaving.

Pac12 is currently at 12 but their expansion options are limited now that the Texas and Oklahoma schools have locked themselves in with the Big XII. There are six potential candidates for the Pac12 and they are BYU, Hawaii, Nevada, UNLV, Colorado State and Utah State. Given the current structures of the Pac12 membership of 2+ schools per state, the U and its sibling State U, I can see the next two additions being Colorado State and Utah State. I just do not see BYU or any other MWC teams being invited.

Big XII is currently at 10 and will expand. They can take 2-4 teams given that they already own the rights to the Big XIV. Who they take will depend on what happens with Maryland exit from the ACC and the $50 millions fee. If Maryland's exit goes well and not have to pay most of the $50 millions, then the Big XII will raid the ACC for Florida State and Clemson or Miami to go to 12. If Maryland's exit is difficult, then it will be difficult for the Big XII to buy out an ACC team in the same manner the B1G can help with Maryland's exit. In that case I believe the best candidates for the Big XII are Louisville, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, South Florida, Northern Illinois, and BYU. Though committed to the ACC, that they are not yet full members and thus, like TCU, may be able to leave with minimal cost. Pittsburgh would make a great regional partner for West Virginia and resume the backyard brawl rivalry. Pittsburgh is also a good market, a good program, and reasonably competitive in football. Cincinnati could be taken with Louisville for the regional synergy with each other as well as with Pittsburgh and West Virginia. Again the Keg of Nail rivalry between Louisville and Cincinnati would be preserved. Three teams would result in an odd number and team number 14 will be needed. South Florida will bring the Big XIV to Florida but will be on its own without realistic prospect for a future partner other than Miami. BYU would give the Big XIV an national marque. Northern Illinois will be considered only if they win against Florida State in the Orange Bowl as they might make a nice regional rival for Iowa State and provide a foothold in the Chicago market.

The ACC conference will hold largely because the core of the conference are the North Carolina schools and the Virginia schools, much like the Big XII held because of Texas and Oklahoma. These 6 schools, UNC, NC State, Duke, Wake Forest, UVA and VT will allow the ACC to endure, and as such so will BC. Whether Clemson, GT, FSU and Miami leave will depend in part on what happens with Maryland's exit. GT is attractive to the B1G and will need a partner to be taken, but Clemson, FSU and Miami are not AAU members. All four might be attractive to the Big XII. If the Maryland exit is difficult these four teams will not leave. If the Big XII then take Pittsburgh and Louisville, the ACC will counter by taking UConn (despite BC resistance in order to maintain a northern foothold with Syracuse), Navy and South Florida (possibly). My bet is Clemson, GT, FSU and Miami will all stay with the ACC.

In my opinion the Big East, without the Catholic BB schools, and without Boise State and probably SDSU in football, will likely cease to exist as an independent FBS conference. Some have suggested some sort of merger with CUSA and I think this is reasonable. The alternative is to build itself as a new football conference but with membership consisting of Temple, Navy, UConn, Cincinnati, USF, UCF, ECU, Memphis, Tulane, SMU and Houston, this grouping of teams has neither cohesion nor identity to exist as a whole.

Of the minor conferences, I believe the MAC appears most stable. With the addition of UMass they are at 13. They should be searching for a 14th and the best options are Temple (which was a member before bolting for the Big East), UConn (if they are not taken by the ACC), Marshal and Western Kentucky (both current CUSA members), and possibly Army.

The MWC will got to 12 with at least Boise State and SDSU. They could go with 14 with SMU and Houston, both Big East invitees. SMU and Houston will move west only if they believe the competition is better in the MWC, to recruit in California rather than Florida, and thus potentially lay the exposure groundwork in Pac 12 markets for future considerations by the Big XII. Neither are candidates for the Big XII or the SEC. Alternative schools are BYU, UTEP, Tulsa, Idaho, New Mexico State. BYU is unlikely because as long as they can set up 6 games with MWC teams, they will be fine with their current TV arrangements. Idaho and New Mexico State are also unlikely because they just don't have a tradition of being competitive.

The Sun Belt are scheduled to lose FAU, FIU, UNT and Middle Tennessee to the CUSA but is gaining Texas State, Georgia State, and UT Arlington (non football) to end at 9 football members. The Sun Belt should make every effort to keep at least three of these programs to get to 12 for a conference championship game. FAU and FIU should be taken as a set to keep Florida. UNT should be consider as a Texas partner with Texas State and similarly Middle Tennessee make a nice regional partner for Western Kentucky. If all four teams are kept the Sun Belt should look at New Mexico State to bring the conference membership to 14. Alternatively the Sun Belt could reach out to USF, UCF and ECU to got to 12 but this seem unlikely. With a presence in Florida and Texas the conference should be decent.

CUSA can pick up former members that left for the Big East that could not found membership in the Majors. These are SMU, Houston, ECU, Memphis, Tulane, and UCF. They are already at 12 so these will take them to 18. If Houston and SMU decide to go to the MWC, and if FAU, FIU, UNT and Middle Tennessee stay in the Sun Belt then CUSA should make an effort to take USF and or Navy. CUSA membership would be the current members, minus Houston and SMU, with Old Dominion, North Carolina Charlotte, UT San Antonio, and Louisiana Tech, without the Sun Belt additions, would leave the CUSA with 14, 16 with USF and Navy.

BCS: Leaning from AQ and Toward +1

From CBS' Murphy.

The items of note from the article for me are:

1. AQ automatically gets $22.3 million, non-AQ gets $13.2 million

2. If non-AQ gets to BCS, they get $26.4 million


What i get from this are

1. Non-BCS programs moving to BCS conference is probably more about TV contract money than BCS money. Tthe increased from about $1 million to $2 million doesn't seem to be enough to offset travel cost and conference exit fees.

2. The MWC and CUSA are unlikely to merge. As an independent conference each gets $13.2 million each, as one conference they might get only $13.2 million total. I am highly skeptical that the combined merged conference would get $22.3, same as an AQ conference, and definitely not $26.4 million, more than an AQ conference.

3. Alliance makes sense with revenue sharing if one team from the Alliance Championship makes it to the BCS, then both conference could win more money.

4. If TV money is the key, each conference will be at a minimum of 10 teams with 9 conference games per team (to get sufficient conference games for airing). 12 teams usually means 8 conference games per team so unless the conference championship game can offset this in tv negotiation, i do not see either conference going to 12. Especially with an Alliance championship format unless there is special NCAA disposition for the two conference to have an intra-conference championship and an inter-conference championship.

5. Even with the BCS as a +1 format, the money situation is unlikely to change. All conferences will continue unequal revenue sharing. And there will be additional money for making the BCS championship series (final 4) and the actual championship game itself.


My conclusion:

MWC + CUSA forms an alliance but not a merger. Both will go to 10, possibly 11 teams (which may result in less non-conference games, which means less tier 3 money for each school and less opportunity to increase strength of schedule against the dominant conferences)

MWC 2013: Air Force, Colorado State, Fresno, Hawaii, Nevada-Las Vegas, Nevada-Reno, New Mexico, and Wyoming for a total of 8 teams. At risk for Big East poaching: Nevada or Hawaii.
MWC candidates: Utah State, San Jose State, UTEP, Idaho, New Mexico State. I suspect the first two.

CUSA 2013. Alabama-Birmingham, East Carolina, Marshal, Memphis, Rice, Southern Mississippi, Texas-El Paso, Tulane, and Tulsa for a total of 9 teams. At risk for Big East poaching: Tulsa, Memphis, East Carolina
CUSA candidates: Army, Navy, Florida International, Arkansas State, Louisiana Tech, North Texas

Big 12: Old vs New by BCS points

BCS Points are described here. The next evaluation will look at the 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 season. The points are used as part 3 of a 3 parts evaluation to determine automatic qualification for the 2012-2013 season.

So lets look at how the old Big 12 compares to the new Big 12 with the 2008, 2009 and 2010 seasons.

0 for Baylor
0 for Colorado
0 for Iowa State
0 for Kansas
0 for Kansas State
4 for Missouri
3 for Nebraska
9 for Oklahoma
5 for Oklahoma St
12 for Texas
2 for Texas A&M
3 for Texas Tech
38 total points

So here is the Big 12 as it appears now for 2012, having lost Colorado, Missouri, Nebraska, and Texas A&M but with Texas Christian and West Virginia over the same time period.


0 for Baylor
0 for Iowa State
0 for Kansas
0 for Kansas State
9 for Oklahoma
5 for Oklahoma St
12 for Texas
15 for Texas Christian
3 for Texas Tech
3 for West Virginia
47 total points

The new Big 12 even with just 10 teams is nearly 24% better than the old in raw points. Since the BCS formula then modify this for conferences less than 12 teams, the 10 teams Big 12 will gain a 12.5% bonus to yield a modified points of 52.875 points.

Should the Big 12 decides to go to 12 with Louisville and Cincinnati, the new points would be:

0 for Baylor
9 for Cincinnati
0 for Iowa State
0 for Kansas
0 for Kansas State
0 for Louisville
9 for Oklahoma
5 for Oklahoma St
12 for Texas
15 for Texas Christian
3 for Texas Tech
3 for West Virginia
56 total points

Going to 12 teams with both Louisville and Cincinnati will make the Big 12 even stronger by BCS points, not just to mention more markets for viewers and fans, and the Ohio river valley to recruit.