20110502

Osama, Obama, and Pakistan

1. Osama bin Laden is dead. Certainty of the offered "proof" is good for most, but i am certain a few will remain skeptical regardless of the evidence available. I doubt much will change from the islamofascist perspective. Any loss of OBL active leadership will likely be offset by his new role as a martyr.

2. Congratulation of all parties involved. GW Bush who started the ball rolling. The intelligence service for finding and tracking him down. The soldiers and operatives who were the boots on the ground. Obama for giving the final mission go ahead.

3. Most troubling is the role Pakistan had and did not have in this operation. If they have protected him, it was because elements of the Pakistani government wanted to do so. Possibly it was for economic reasons to get continued financial aid from the the US, but more likely for ideological reasons. The ideologically inclined elements will not be happy at OBL's death, and the islamofascists in Pakistan may make an issue with the current Pakistani government for allowing it to happen. They will suspect and claim active Pakistani government involvement regardless of what the governments (the US and Pakisan) denies. Either the Pakistani government was inadequate to protect OBL from foreign infidels within Pakistan itself, or that they were a party to a betrayal. That the government harbored him at all for so long will be a condemnation from some Pakistanis. Pakistan has been a powder keg for a while. I worry this even may be a tipping point, the lighting of the fuse, for Pakistan becoming a fail state. Perhaps even civil war. Either way, the West cannot allow a nuclear Pakistan to degenerate or deteriorates much more. And we certainly cannot walk away given Iran is a direct neighbor and a failed Pakistan will be a boon to Iran. OBL's death may be the first lightning spark of an oncoming storm.