Osama, Obama, and Pakistan

1. Osama bin Laden is dead. Certainty of the offered "proof" is good for most, but i am certain a few will remain skeptical regardless of the evidence available. I doubt much will change from the islamofascist perspective. Any loss of OBL active leadership will likely be offset by his new role as a martyr.

2. Congratulation of all parties involved. GW Bush who started the ball rolling. The intelligence service for finding and tracking him down. The soldiers and operatives who were the boots on the ground. Obama for giving the final mission go ahead.

3. Most troubling is the role Pakistan had and did not have in this operation. If they have protected him, it was because elements of the Pakistani government wanted to do so. Possibly it was for economic reasons to get continued financial aid from the the US, but more likely for ideological reasons. The ideologically inclined elements will not be happy at OBL's death, and the islamofascists in Pakistan may make an issue with the current Pakistani government for allowing it to happen. They will suspect and claim active Pakistani government involvement regardless of what the governments (the US and Pakisan) denies. Either the Pakistani government was inadequate to protect OBL from foreign infidels within Pakistan itself, or that they were a party to a betrayal. That the government harbored him at all for so long will be a condemnation from some Pakistanis. Pakistan has been a powder keg for a while. I worry this even may be a tipping point, the lighting of the fuse, for Pakistan becoming a fail state. Perhaps even civil war. Either way, the West cannot allow a nuclear Pakistan to degenerate or deteriorates much more. And we certainly cannot walk away given Iran is a direct neighbor and a failed Pakistan will be a boon to Iran. OBL's death may be the first lightning spark of an oncoming storm.

Iranian Protest 09

Peaceful revolutions are the exceptions, more commonly peaceful attempts at revolutions are crushed brutally. Against a totalitarian regime willing the hold on to power despite its people, willing to act with violence against its own people, these protests will come to no good, leaving only blood, deaths, and persectutions. Just like with Tiananmen square in 89. My heart goes out to freeom loving Iranians.

Gaza: Israel vs. Hamas & Iran

I am not sure what Israel hope to accomplish against Hamas in Gaza with the current conflict. Israel surely do not want a repeat of the last Lebannon war. Then, it might have tactically weakened Hezbolla but the resultant military stalemate became a political loss of Israel. I am not just sure that Israel can take out Hamas even if Israel take over Gaza. Certainly this does not mean it is worth the effort to inflict massive damage on Hamas.

What is more potentially interesting is that Israel may be, through the attack against Hamas, may actually provoking Iran, Hamas' major backer, into some sort of response. A military response by Iran would certainly justify an Israeli attack against Iranian nuclear program.

All this is happening just before Bush leave office (a more supportive PotUS for Israel) and potentially laying the ground works for an Obama administration support.