Fiscal Cliff & Debt Ceiling

I understand that the GOP may not wanted a public backlash of raising taxes on the middle class. But the increased revenue raising without any significant spending reduction will be harmful to the US economy in the long run. And I still believe that raising taxes on those who employ is a bad idea as well. Fine.

But come the debt ceiling the GOP should starting to manage and frame the conversation in terms of a bloated government with out of control spending and that the debt limit is there to limit too much borrowing by the government and thus should not be tampered with. They don't even have to bring anything to the floor for a vote. Just let the debt limit be applied.

2012 Presidential Election Demographic

This Washington Post article on the demographic of the 2012 presidential election is interesting.
Naturally some reservation on the data must be kept as the data is from exit polling and  that the 2012 presidential election turn out was about 9-10 millions less than that of 2008. Never the less this should give the Republican Party some cause for hope moving into the future when evaluating shifts toward the right since 2008.

The Trends
Males: +4% points gain
Females: +1%

Age 18-29: +5% (-6% for democrats)
Age 30-34: -1% (no change for democrats)
Age 45-64: +2% (-3% for democrats)
Age 65+: +3% (-1% for democrats)

White: +4%
Black: +2%
Hispanic:-4%
Asians: -9%
Other: +7% (-8% for democrats)

No high school education: (+1% for democrats)
High school graduate: +2% (-1% for democrats)
Some college / associate degree: +1% (-2% for democrats)
College graduate: +3%
Postgraduate study: +2% (-3% for democrats)

Income under $50k: no change
Income $50k - $99k: +5%
Income $100k or more: +5%

Married men: +7% (-8% for democrats)
Married women: +2% (-1% for democrats)
Unmarried men: +2%
Unmarried women:  +2% (-3% for democrats)

Ideology liberal: +1% (-3& for democrats)
Ideology moderate: +2% (-4% for democrats)
Ideology conservative: +4% (-3% for democrats)

Religion Protestant or other Christian: +3%

Religion Catholic: +3% (-4% for democrats)

Religion something else: +1% (+1% for democrats as well)

Religion Jewish: +9%

Religion none: +3% (-5% for democrats)

Republicans made gains in all these demographic groups except Hispanics and Asians. The Hispanic population, and to a lesser extent the Asian population, are both growing in significance in population and economic power. Hispanic constitute 16% of the population, with Asian as 5% and African-American as 13%. Clearly for the Republicans to gain in future election, outreach programs to the Hispanic and Asian population need to receive much greater emphasis.

Of the remaining demographic groups, assuming a polling margin of error of 3%, leaving gains of 4% or more as significant, the following groups moved toward the Republicans.

Males: +4% point gain
Age 18-29: +5% (-6% for democrats)
White: +4%
Income $50k - $99k: +5%
Income $100k or more: +5%
Married men: +7% (-8% for democrats)
Ideology conservative: +4% (-3% for democrats)
Religion Jewish: +9%
Why the Republicans are typically seen as a party of white conservative married men, I believe gains in the young voters, working people, and Jews need to be solidified. The majority of young voters and Jews still voted for democrats. Identify why these voters switch and build on these causes. Men and those with income greater than $50k only became more likely to vote Republican this election and these gains absolutely cannot be taken for granted.

On the cusps are the 3% gains.
Age 65+: +3% (-1% for democrats)
College graduate: +3%
Religion Protestant or other Christian: +3%

Religion Catholic: +3% (-4% for democrats)

In summary, the Republican needs to solidify the base (married men, white and conservatives), build on gains made with men, those making over $50k, the elderly, college graduates and Christians. Reach out much more to the young, Jews, Hispanics, and Asians. Build on your strengths and at the same time address your weakness.

Note I did not include independents, and those who are doing better/worse than four years ago as these are essentially referendum on the incumbent. Given the broad gains made by the Republicans, that Obama still won reinforces my hypothesis of the cult of Obama as the cause of his electoral victory rather than any fundamental shift in American ideology.

Vote Romney Ryan

The GOP Field 2011

I watched most of the GOP New Hampshire debate last night. There simply not enough contrast and fighting; everyone was too jovial and collegial with each other. They seem all old boys GOP network: Cain wanting in, and so did Bachmann. That resulted in the front runner remaining the front runner: Romney. I am not a fan.
I think Sarah Palin should declare and run. She would be a clear contrast to both the current GOP field, as well as with Obama. Regarding her electibility, let the primary decided de facto rather than pundits declaring her unelectable a priori and there for should not run. Regarding electibility, consider this:

Palin Ties Obama in Key Swing States: OH, NC, NV, MO, PA

Indian Americans

When Nikki Haley wins the gubernatorial election in South Carolina come November, as she did tonight in the GOP run off, she will join Bobby Jindal as the second Indian American to be elected as Governor in the US. Interesting that both are Republicans.


Update:
WSJ: An Indian in the White House?

I support Scott Brown as the next US Senator from Massachusetts. Why?

1. His election would give Republicans 41 votes, enough break the Democrats current filibuster proof 60 votes.
2. He has promised to vote against Obama care.
3. He is running for the People of Massachusetts' US Senate seat, not dead Kennedy's US Senate seat.

I have given money once already and have just given again. You can do so as well here.

Conservatives & Republicans

Conservatives and Republicans are not synonymous. The contentious line between the two will only be highlighted with this election losses. There has been consideration for Republicans to build a bigger tent to get more independent voters. Conservatives have considered moving to form their own party that better represent their thoughts. And then there are the Libertarians, with many similar ideologies.

I believe the Republicans should continue to be a political machinery to elect candidates. I believe the Republicans should be a party of strong national defense, sound fiscal policies, small government, personal responsibility, economic opportunity, and family value.

I believe if people can identify personally with 3 or 4 of these six platform, then they should be welcomed into the party, as long as there will not be compromises on the other 2 or 3 platforms. Then we can have that big tent without driving away conservatives or independents. I do not believe there needs to be or should be a split between Conservatives and Republicans. I also believe that it would be a good thing for the Republican Party and conservatives to continue to have some differences of opinion as a contest of ideas can only make both stronger.

I believe the party should also reach out to Libertarians for similar reasons.