2012 Presidential Election Demographic

This Washington Post article on the demographic of the 2012 presidential election is interesting.
Naturally some reservation on the data must be kept as the data is from exit polling and  that the 2012 presidential election turn out was about 9-10 millions less than that of 2008. Never the less this should give the Republican Party some cause for hope moving into the future when evaluating shifts toward the right since 2008.

The Trends
Males: +4% points gain
Females: +1%

Age 18-29: +5% (-6% for democrats)
Age 30-34: -1% (no change for democrats)
Age 45-64: +2% (-3% for democrats)
Age 65+: +3% (-1% for democrats)

White: +4%
Black: +2%
Hispanic:-4%
Asians: -9%
Other: +7% (-8% for democrats)

No high school education: (+1% for democrats)
High school graduate: +2% (-1% for democrats)
Some college / associate degree: +1% (-2% for democrats)
College graduate: +3%
Postgraduate study: +2% (-3% for democrats)

Income under $50k: no change
Income $50k - $99k: +5%
Income $100k or more: +5%

Married men: +7% (-8% for democrats)
Married women: +2% (-1% for democrats)
Unmarried men: +2%
Unmarried women:  +2% (-3% for democrats)

Ideology liberal: +1% (-3& for democrats)
Ideology moderate: +2% (-4% for democrats)
Ideology conservative: +4% (-3% for democrats)

Religion Protestant or other Christian: +3%

Religion Catholic: +3% (-4% for democrats)

Religion something else: +1% (+1% for democrats as well)

Religion Jewish: +9%

Religion none: +3% (-5% for democrats)

Republicans made gains in all these demographic groups except Hispanics and Asians. The Hispanic population, and to a lesser extent the Asian population, are both growing in significance in population and economic power. Hispanic constitute 16% of the population, with Asian as 5% and African-American as 13%. Clearly for the Republicans to gain in future election, outreach programs to the Hispanic and Asian population need to receive much greater emphasis.

Of the remaining demographic groups, assuming a polling margin of error of 3%, leaving gains of 4% or more as significant, the following groups moved toward the Republicans.

Males: +4% point gain
Age 18-29: +5% (-6% for democrats)
White: +4%
Income $50k - $99k: +5%
Income $100k or more: +5%
Married men: +7% (-8% for democrats)
Ideology conservative: +4% (-3% for democrats)
Religion Jewish: +9%
Why the Republicans are typically seen as a party of white conservative married men, I believe gains in the young voters, working people, and Jews need to be solidified. The majority of young voters and Jews still voted for democrats. Identify why these voters switch and build on these causes. Men and those with income greater than $50k only became more likely to vote Republican this election and these gains absolutely cannot be taken for granted.

On the cusps are the 3% gains.
Age 65+: +3% (-1% for democrats)
College graduate: +3%
Religion Protestant or other Christian: +3%

Religion Catholic: +3% (-4% for democrats)

In summary, the Republican needs to solidify the base (married men, white and conservatives), build on gains made with men, those making over $50k, the elderly, college graduates and Christians. Reach out much more to the young, Jews, Hispanics, and Asians. Build on your strengths and at the same time address your weakness.

Note I did not include independents, and those who are doing better/worse than four years ago as these are essentially referendum on the incumbent. Given the broad gains made by the Republicans, that Obama still won reinforces my hypothesis of the cult of Obama as the cause of his electoral victory rather than any fundamental shift in American ideology.

A thought on Obama's victory

In retrospect I think we all should have foreseen an Obama reelection. In 2008 Obama got elected not based on the Democratic platform, Obama got elected as a person. There was a cult of personality around Obama. Though diminished some, that cult of personality remains in 2012. Thus it did not matter that Obama lied about Benghazi or Romney. Thus it did not matter that the economy remains as bad today as it was when he took office. Thus it did not matter that he broke so many promises. To his followers he was their guy, and their vote was his. Loyal fans cheer for their team even in losing season.

The Democrats should not assume the turn out in 2008 and 2012 will be duplicated in 2016. It wasn't about the Democratic turnout, it was the Obama turnout.

Election 2009 Thoughts

1. A huge congratulation to the Republicans of Virginia for their huge wins.
2. Congratulations as well to Governor Elect Christie of New Jersey.
3. State elections are about state issues. The current issue in Virginia is the economy. McDonnell had a more positive message than Deeds. I think this was a significant factor in his win. Had Obama's administration economic policies been better, Obama and Deeds would have done better. Personality only go so far in politics, especially once you have to govern.
4. The NY-23 election was also about local issues. The take home lesson for conservatives and the GOP is that both have to work together to win. A third party candidate is not viable from the outside. But threats of a third party run may be preempted by cooperation between the GOP and conservatives. Had Hoffman won in NY-23, there would have been a greater impetus to field third party candidates elsewhere in NY in 2010 (given the established nature of the Conservative Party in NY) and maybe elsewhere nationally as well.
5. I think #4 is also significant regarding the Arctic Fox Palin. She would be more effective to shape the direction of the GOP better than building a third party movement.

Republicans, Conservatives and Independents

Since the November loss, not just for the presidency but also regarding seats in the Senate and the House of Representatives, there has been an ongoing debate on how to rebuild the party. The two predominant ideas are either to make the party more appealing to Independents or to return to core principles of conservatives. This competing idea is playing out in the NY23 race where the GOP nominated a moderate candidate Dede Scozzafava (as they called her) with the belief she will be more appealing to independents. In response, conservatives and conservative commentators have come out roaring against a candidate they consider either a RINO at best, or a far left at worse, in favor of a non GOP candidate from the Conservative party of NY, Doug Hoffman.

Conservatives Call On Scozzafava To Withdraw
Conservatives roar; Republicans tremble

I believe the GOP bosses are making several huge mistakes. Firstly, all successful organizations need people to do the work and believe in the work. Without the base, the party is certain to fail.

Rasmussen: 73 percent say GOP leaders have lost touch with Republican base

Secondly, there is also a divergence of the party's goal and the base's goal politically. The party wants to win election. Thus it makes perfect sense for the party to focus on candidates they believe are electable with appeals to the middle. But the base is more concerned with how the party will govern once elected. By having candidates that are far removed from the base's ideology, once elected they don't necessarily vote with the party. See Arlen Specter and Olympia Snowe as examples.

Thirdly, the choice between electability and adherence to party ideology is a false choice because you could have both. Independent voters are frequently not wedded to a particular ideology. They do not have their own party or party platform. They thus choose from what is offered by the current parties come election time. Thus when the choice is between idea X and idea similar to X, the tendency will be to go with idea X itself rather than X-lite. But when the choice is between X and Y, where both are clearly different, Y becomes distinguished and appealing in its own right.

Obviously if an idea is clearly bad, it will not be chosen. I do not believe this is the case with the ideas of Conservatism. I believe the ideas of Conservatism continue to be sound and appealing to most of Americans, not just conservatives. As is, conservative outnumber liberals and twice as many Americans are becoming more conservative than more liberal.

While some politicians focus on winning elections,
On the NY23 Race, We Have A Practical Choice To Make

other remembers why why politicians are elected for office to begin with.

The votes of every member of Congress affect every American, so it's important for all of us to pay attention to this important Congressional campaign in upstate New York. I am very pleased to announce my support for Doug Hoffman in his fight to be the next Representative from New York's 23rd Congressional district. It's my honor to endorse Doug and to do what I can to help him win, including having my political action committee, SarahPAC, donate to his campaign the maximum contribution allowed by law.

* * *

Political parties must stand for something. When Republicans were in the wilderness in the late 1970s, Ronald Reagan knew that the doctrine of "blurring the lines" between parties was not an appropriate way to win elections. Unfortunately, the Republican Party today has decided to choose a candidate who more than blurs the lines, and there is no real difference between the Democrat and the Republican in this race. This is why Doug Hoffman is running on the Conservative Party's ticket.

Republican Party & Conservatives Ideology

According to wikipedia, conservatism in the US is described thus:

is a major American political ideology. In contemporary American politics, it is often associated with the Republican Party. Core conservative principles include a trust in God and country, and many U.S. conservatives support a fiscal policy rooted in small government, laissez faire capitalism, and supply-side economics. In foreign policy, American conservatives usually advocate some moderate aspects of "American exceptionalism", a belief that the U.S. is unique among nations and that its standing and actions do and should guide the course of world history.

The above description links two things that are currently incompatible in practice, the Republican Party as a vehicle to elect Conservative politicians with Conservativism consisting of "a fiscal policy rooted in small government, laissez faire capitalism, and supply-side economics. The reality is that any conservatives entering politics may believe sincerely in small government but how can one reasonably expect anyone to work to make one's job less essential? How to be in government in order to make government smaller? Isn't this what is expected of a Conservative Republicans?

Democratic politicians believe in big government. They enter politics with the goal of enlarging the role of government. The longer they stay in government, the larger role they play in government, the more successful they are at achieving their political ideology. This will not be true for Conservative Republicans. The longer Republicans stay in politics, the less conservative they become in terms of small government. Once they lose the Conservative political ideal of small government, they really are no longer Conservatives. They may remain social conservatives or religious conservatives, but even social conservatives prefer the government not to dictate social conducts and even religious conservatives prefer government apart from their church. Thus a Republican politician that is not a Conservative will at best become ineffective as a Conservative, or will betray the Conservative cause.

This is playing itself out in US politics. The Republican Party, as directed by long time DC insiders, long term Republican politicians, is growing away from from Conservative voters political ideation. Witness the low turn out for McCain before Palin and the current Tea Parties. I believe most Republican politicians may earnestly believe they are doing the best they can, and that having been in government longer, they may even know better than the Conservatives that voted them into office. Some I believe already know they have strayed far from Conservatism and just don't care. Some of these latter, like Arlen Spectre, renounce their Republican status and run as a Democrat. Some of these latter continue to masquerade as Republicans and help direct and run the Republican Party. Because of their self-serving dishonesty, these are the most despicable of politicians, Republican or Democrats. Regardless, the longer a Republican stay in the same political office, the less Conservative they become.

As is, the only way I can see to minimize the natural political corruption of Republican politicians is term limits. Republican politicians or the Party should adopt and declare voluntary and self imposed term limits. Waiting for a law to impose term limits is very unlikely to happen. Term limits hurts the Democrats and is counter to their political goals and ideation. Term limits allows Republicans to adhere to their political goals and ideation. I actually believe that when a politician declares he will limit his political career, to achieve a declared goal in a set time, or step away and let another try, will help his electoral chances.

MLK Was a Republican

Sarah Palin

It is well known by now that Sarah Palin is resigning as governor at the end of the month. Why she is resigning is any one's speculation at this point. We won't know for sure until after she is no longer governor. I would say an August.

Exerps from Palin's resignation speech:

Life is too short to compromise time and resources... it may be tempting and more comfortable to just keep your head down, plod along, and appease those who demand: "Sit down and shut up", but that's the worthless, easy path; that's a quitter's way out. And a problem in our country today is apathy. It would be apathetic to just hunker down and “go with the flow”.

Nah, only dead fish "go with the flow".

No. Productive, fulfilled people determine where to put their efforts, choosing to wisely utilize precious time... to BUILD UP.

And there is such a need to BUILD up and FIGHT for our state and our country. I choose to FIGHT for it! And I'll work hard for others who still believe in free enterprise and smaller government; strong national security for our country and support for our troops; energy independence; and for those who will protect freedom and equality and LIFE... I'll work for and campaign for those PROUD to be American, and those who are INSPIRED by our ideals and won't deride them.

I WILL support others who seek to serve, in or out of office, for the RIGHT reasons, and I don't care what party they're in or no party at all. Inside Alaska – or Outside Alaska.

But I won’t do it from the Governor’s desk.

...

In fact, this decision comes after much consideration, and finally polling the most important people in my life - my children (where the count was unanimous... well, in response to asking: "Want me to make a positive difference and fight for ALL our children's future from OUTSIDE the Governor's office?" It was four "yes's" and one "hell yeah!" The "hell yeah" sealed it - and someday I'll talk about the details of that... I think much of it had to do with the kids seeing their baby brother Trig mocked by some pretty mean-spirited adults recently.) Um, by the way, sure wish folks could ever, ever understand that we ALL could learn so much from someone like Trig - I know he needs me, but I need him even more... what a child can offer to set priorities RIGHT – that time is precious... the world needs more "Trigs", not fewer.

My decision was also fortified during this most recent trip to Kosovo and Landstuhl, to visit our wounded soldiers overseas, those who sacrifice themselves in war for OUR freedom and security… we can ALL learn from our selfless Troops… they’re bold, they don’t give up, they take a stand and know that LIFE is short so they choose to NOT waste time. They choose to be productive and to serve something greater than SELF... and to build up their families, their states, our country. These Troops and their important missions – those are truly the worthy causes in this world and should be the public priority with time and resources and NOT this local / superficial wasteful political bloodsport.

May we ALL learn from them!

*((Gotta put First Things First))*

First things first: as Governor, I love my job and I love Alaska. It hurts to make this choice but I am doing what’s best for Alaska. I’ve explained why… though I think of the saying on my parents’ refrigerator that says “Don’t explain: your friends don’t need it and your enemies won’t believe you anyway.”

But I have given my reasons… no more “politics as usual” and I am taking my fight for what’s right – for Alaska – in a new direction.

My speculations in no particular order.
1. She will remain in politics, though possibly not as a candidate.
2. She cannot rail against the "politics as usual" of Washington DC as along as she is a Republican Governor.
3. The Republican party is in a big mess right now, and a part of the problem is the huge disconnect between the Republican party insiders and political leaders and the conservative voters of America.
4. To continue in politics she will need to control her message better. She cannot do so as an elected official.
5. she would not resign without having something better already lined up.
6. Her strength is Energy, her weakness are business and foreign affair.

Palin could be lining up to create a third political force for conservatives. Perhaps not a third political party but a force apart from the Republican party. Even with a two party system in Congress a third way / independent president will certainly change how DC politics work. This may appear like what Perot attempted, but there are two main difference. She has substantial charisma, Perot did not. Perot has the financial resources, she does not ... or does she?

Who would back her?
someone who has media connection ... perhaps even ownership
someone who is in the energy industry ... and well funded
someone who is international and yet with an American perspective
in all likelihood, not a single someone but a group of someones.

2010 Election: Census for 2012

The Republican Party needs to regroup and regroup fast. While there has been an argument to make the party more centrists, I think this argument is lost both on value and sentiments. The Republican Party cannot win more votes if it disenfranchises its most active (in terms of word of mouth support as well as get out the vote effort) faction, the Christian conservatives. Every poll thus far have suggested that the Republican voters want to make the party more conservative, more right leaning rather center leaning. Those who can still remain Republican with this shift should do so, those who cannot should consider whether the Democrats or the Libertarians have what it takes to win their vote, or even whether they should sit out of the next election. Meanwhile the Republicans should proceed with preparations for the 2010 state elections because this election will have at least a decade long consequence.

Why are the 2010 state elections so important? Because the next census will be conducted in 2010, and electoral changes will be reflected in the 2012 election. That means who ever is in charge of the states when the districts are redrawn will be doing so.

From Wikipedia the following states are expected to change:

Probable Gainers:
Texas (4)
Arizona (2)
Florida (2)
Georgia (1)
Nevada (1)
North Carolina (1)
Oregon (1)
South Carolina (1)
Utah (1)

Probable Losers:
New York (2)
Ohio (2)
California (1)
Illinois (1)
Louisiana (1)
Massachusetts (1)
Michigan (1)
Minnesota (1)
Missouri (1)
New Jersey (1)
Pennsylvania (1)
Iowa (1)

Obviously more effort should be placed in states expected to gain, but even effort will be required in states expected to lose as their congressional district map will also be redrawn.

Considerations regarding priority should also weigh which states will Republicans have the best chances. For this I referenced Jay Cost's recent post on 2008 polarization of the PotUS election. I recognize that many states may have voted for Obama that remain in Republican control but Jay's evaluation looks at how far the state population voted away from the national mean, thus providing a window at the trend for these states. From his analysis, I then categorized states as either red or blue, the remainder are listed as neutral leaners.

Thus cross referring the expected 2010 census winners and Jay's analysis i get the following:

1. Neutral states gaining representations: Texas (4), Arizona (2), Florida(2), Georgia (1), Nevada (1), North Carolina (1), Oregon (1), and South Carolina (1)
2. Red state gaining representations: Utah (1)
3. Neutral states losing representations: New York (2), Ohio (2), California (1), Illinois (1), Massachusetts (1), Michigan (1), Minnesota (1), Missouri (1), New Jersey (1), Pennsylvania (1), and Iowa (1)
4. Red state losing representations: Louisiana (1),
5. Blue states gaining representations: none
6. Blue states losing representations: none

I ranked neutral states gaining representations first because these states will also be in play for the Democrats, thus these states are where the Republicans must make the greatest efforts. Second is the state (Utah) where Republican will likely win if sufficient attention and effort is made. Third are neutral states where the Republicans cannot lose if they do not want to be redistricted out of representation. Fourth is the state (Louisiana) where Republicans will likely maintain representations as long as they can maintain control. Note that no solid Blue states are expected to gain or lose representation.

For Democrats, they too will focus on the neutral states expected to gain or lose. But because none of the Blue states are expected to gain or lose, they will be able to place resources to win in Red states changing.



Neutral states that leaned red expecting to gain representations are Texas (4), Arizona (2), Georgia (1), South Carolina (1), and Utah (1) for a total of 9. Neutral states that leaned blue expecting to gain representation are Florida (2), Nevada (1), North Carolina (1), and Oregon (1) for a total of 5. For the moment if we assume that the new district goes along with the color of the states, this would mean a net gain of 4 for Republicans.

Neutral states that leaned red expecting to lose representations are Louisiana (1), and Missouri (1) for a total 2. Neutral states that leaned blue expecting to lose representations are New York (2), Ohio (2), California (1), Illinois (1), Massachusetts (1), Michigan (1), Minnesota (1), New Jersey (1), and Pennsylvania (1) for a total of 11. Assuming that the party in power based on the state leaning redraws the map to exclude their political opponent, this means a potential net loss of up to 9 congressional seats for the Republicans.

If the Republicans cannot control the redrawing of the congressional district, they could lose an upward of 5 seats before 2012 election season even roll around.

Republican Party: Abandon the Evangelical and Shift to Center?

The point of a political party should not be about winning elections, nor should it be about pandering to the voters. The point of a political party is to enact positive change to our nation, and that means moving the middle away from the middle. The left understood this very well, why do we not? By moving toward the middle and abandoning out core principles we deserve to lose each and every time.

I am not religious. I do not see the evangelical faction of the Republican party pushing God onto the agenda. I see them as pushing a pro-life and pro-family agenda and i have no problem with either of these. Even as a libertarian the government still has to protect its weakest members and maintain the most basic unit of our society and community.

Having said this, I think the party should push these on the State level. Abortion is not and should not be a federal issue. It has no place in our constitution and all powers not explicitly given to the feds in the constitution belongs to the state. We should leave it there.

I would say the same of marriage. Having said that, I also think marriage should be a church issue and make civil unions a legal issue. I personally think civil union legal rights should only be given to families (i.e. couples with kids), whether the couple is heterosexual or homosexual).

The party should continue to push for strong nation defense primarily on the national level. Other aspects of the Republican principles like small government, fiscal responsibility, economic opportunity, and personal responsibility apply equally to State and Federal levels.

Political Party & Elections

With the recent 2008 election losses, some commenter have suggested that the Republican Party become more centrist in order to win. I think this misses the point of political parties in general. If the goal of any political party is to win election, then it is only about empowering some to lead others. Shouldn't we be primarily concerned about where we are being led to? It has to be about ideology first.

And if the party's ideology is in tune with the center, then how can any candidate from that party even possibly be leading rather than just manage the status quo once elected. Now if the status quo is great, then we may not want to expend the effort to make things better. But i assure you that things can be better. And once the premise that things can be better, then you have to ask how can you enact policies to change and make things better. And as soon as you do so, then you are proposing non-centrist ideas.

The goal then of any party is to suggest actionable plan that appeals to the center, to be adopted by the center, to make the party ideals mainstream. When this occur, it is not the party becoming more mainstream, it is actually the center being shifted toward the party's ideology. Thus in order for a party to be successful, it must have non-mainstream non-centrist ideas. However, if the party actionable plan is too extreme, then it will not appeal to the center. Society adopt changes very slowly.

In a previous post i suggested some principles the Republican party should adhere to, cultivate, and build upon.

Strong National Defense
Small Government in Society
Conservative Fiscal Policy
Fair Economic Opportunity
Culture of Personal Responsibility
Traditional Family Value

These may not be new ideas, but they are great ideas have made our nation great and should continue to guide our nation forward. These ideas continue to appeal and resonate with most Americans. Thus the solution for the Republican party to win elections is not to become more centrist. Rather, it is for the Republicans to offer and deliver meaningful changes and improvement to America that remain congruous to these principles.